NFL Week 8 player props: Throwing fades and shade

It turns out it wasn't "broke" last week, as we rolled to an 8-2 record. That takes our player prop record to 40-19 (+21.1 units) since the uncertainty of Week 1.

Sam Darnold over 240.5 passing yards

We set out this season looking to back Kyle Pitts any time his yardage was lined at less than 50. He's 3-2 in such instances, but word is out on our hero, and the market has adjusted.

So we turn our support in this game toward ... Sam Darnold. Wait, what?

Darnold was benched last week but now goes up against the Falcons' defense, which has been more comfortable for opposing quarterbacks, getting pressure at the third-lowest rate in the league.

The market is low on Darnold, which means it's time to buy at the relatively short number of 240.5 yards in a game that should go back and forth late.

Robert Woods over 65.5 receiving yards

Fantasy managers know all too well that Woods isn't producing the way they, or he, would have hoped. Never fear, the Texans' secondary is here. Whether or not Cooper Kupp does his usual thing, Woods has a chance to break out Sunday as the Rams build a big lead and spread the wealth around.

Stefon Diggs anytime touchdown (-110)

Diggs is another receiver whose been a step behind his past production. Like Woods, he should be more of a focal point this week. The Bills live for blowing out the Dolphins. One of Diggs' two touchdowns this season came in the first meeting, and after a bye week allowed the Bills to self-scout, look for them to take out their frustrations from a Monday night loss.

D'Andre Swift over 46.5 receiving yards

The Eagles are top 10 in defensive yards per carry but give up the fifth-most targets and receptions to opposing running backs. Swift nearly went for 100 yards last week, and the Philadelphia native will have plenty of opportunities to show out for the folks back home, especially if the Lions are in their usual position of trailing big in the second half.

Baker Mayfield under 29.5 pass attempts

Our favorite prop bets are the ones with multiple ways to win. The pessimist in me wonders how long Mayfield might last in this game, as the Steelers' defense will look to test his ailing left shoulder.

The optimist in me sees the sloppy weather report in Cleveland veering this game into a ground battle. The Browns are content with that matchup; their run defense ranks second in yards per carry against, while the offense gets Nick Chubb back to pair with last week's breakout star, D'Ernest Johnson.

Elijah Mitchell over 71.5 yards rushing

Running back production relies on opportunity. Mitchell took the reins as the 49ers' main man last week. This week, he gets the carries against the Bears' depleted defense, which may again be without Akiem Hicks. The Buccaneers ran for 5.9 yards per carry on the Bears, who were missing their stout defensive tackle in Week 7.

Ryan Tannehill under 244.5 yards passing

Here's Tannehill's yardage against the Colts in his last five games against them: 197, 221, 147, 182, 204. Whether in a big win or big loss, with either the Titans or the Dolphins, it hasn't mattered; Tannehill has stayed under this number. It doesn't help that one of his big-name receivers will be out, as Julio Jones is sidelined yet again.

Geno Smith under 218.5 passing yards

Is there a reason not to fade Geno Smith at this point?

While it's possible he gets another big catch-and-run from DK Metcalf, but despite an 84-yard touchdown last week, Smith only had 83 yards the rest of the way.

While the Jaguars' defense isn't nearly as good as the Saints', this is more about the Seahawks' conservative game plan for Smith.

Damien Harris over 71.5 rushing yards

My respect for Justin Herbert is the reason I'm not fading the Chargers star a season after he was baffled by Bill Belichick. Instead, I'll look to Harris who should be able to take advantage of Los Angeles' defensive game plan.

The Chargers are content on getting gashed on the ground if it takes away explosive plays through the air. The Patriots will take that, and Harris can get more than a few 9-yard runs that may not add up to a win but will add up to over 71.5.

Tom Brady under 305.5 passing yards

We conclude with the easiest bet to make, even if it means fading the GOAT. Brady didn't crack 239 yards in three separate matchups with the Saints last season.

New Orleans primarily plays a man-to-man style, which has proved successful against the Buccaneers in the past thanks to Marshon Lattimore's ability to handle Mike Evans. Meanwhile, Antonio Brown's best function is as a man-to-man defense-beater with his ability to shake defenders and ability to work crossing routes. He's out again for this potentially low-scoring game, at least relative to what Tom and Co. are used to.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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