Cowboys-Vikings best bets: How to deal with the Prescott uncertainty

The line movement for this game has been wild. It opened Sunday night around pick'em and was bet all the way to Cowboys -3 Tuesday. There was some quick buy-back on the Vikings, but it's moved to Minnesota -2.5 since then with the growing possibility that Dak Prescott doesn't play due to a calf injury.

One thing we know for sure is this will not close at Minnesota -2.5. It'll move further in favor of the Vikings if the Cowboys rule Prescott out. However, we'll see Dallas close as favorites if the quarterback does play. So how do you bet this game right now?

Well, we have to do our best to avoid as many variables as possible, and all three of us took to the player prop market to do so. Here's how we're betting Cowboys-Vikings:

C Jackson Cowart: Tony Pollard over 38.5 rushing yards

The more I stare at this line, the less it makes sense. Pollard has had a consistent role in Dallas' offense all season, averaging 70.4 rushing yards over the last five games. He's also recorded at least 10 carries and 40 yards in each of those five contests. So why is he priced so low here?

Expect the Cowboys to lean on the run game with Prescott's injury hanging over this contest, which should mean a heavy dose of Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. Both should feast against a Vikings defense allowing the third-most yards per carry (4.8), though Pollard comes at a much cheaper price.

Alex Moretto: Ezekiel Elliott over 75.5 receiving yards

Trying to handicap this game without definitive news on Prescott is foolish. You can't justify a bet on the side or total at the current market price without knowing who will be starting under center for the Cowboys. I took the Vikings during the brief window they moved to +3 Tuesday, but it's unlikely the line swings that far back in Dallas' direction even if Dak is active tonight. If it does, take the +3.

So how do we bet this amidst the uncertainty? Well, whether it's the inexperienced Cooper Rush under center or a banged-up Prescott, the Cowboys can be expected to lean heavily on the ground game, and I like the look here with Zeke's rushing yards over. Minnesota ranks 31st in run stop win rate and will be without big nose tackle Michael Pierce again tonight - a big blow against a Dallas line that ranks sixth in run block win rate.

Matt Russell: Adam Thielen anytime touchdown (+110)

I'll look for the most reliable player prop if forced to make a bet before knowing whether Prescott is good to go. Who won't see their probability altered much following late lineup news?

Adam Thielen is Kirk Cousins' go-to in the red zone, and the Vikings still need to score points whether the Cowboys' offense is at full health or not. If Trevon Diggs is responsible for Justin Jefferson, then Thielen might end up being Cousins' focal point.

Thielen has five touchdowns over six games this season, so there's certainly reason to believe there's some value here on a night that could go either way.

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