Week 9 survivor picks: Navigating life without the Bills, Rams

Our top two Week 8 selections came through - but not everyone was so lucky.

The first domino fell on Sunday as the Bengals became the first touchdown favorite to lose this season, taking a massive chunk of survivor entries down with them. I lost one of my four entries as well, but with nearly half of my pool on Cincinnati, it's a trade-off I'll gladly take.

Before we dive into Week 9, I just wanted to say that this article will be published on Wednesdays going forward, having been posted on Tuesdays up to this point. As injuries pile up and more players land on the COVID-19 list, the extra day just allows for more player news to come through, thus resulting in greater accuracy in these articles.

With that being said, here's how Week 9 shakes out:

AWAY	HOME	PICK (CR)
Bills	Jaguars (+14.5)	BUF (9)
Titans	Rams (-7.5)	LAR (8)
Jets	Colts (-10.5)	IND (8)
Broncos	Cowboys (-10)	DAL (7)
Falcons	Saints (-6)	NO (5)
Texans	Dolphins (-6.5)	MIA (4)
Packers	Chiefs (-8)	KC (4)
Bears	Steelers (-6.5)	PIT (3)
Vikings	Ravens (-5.5)	BAL (2)
Chargers	Eagles (+2.5)	LAC (2)
Browns	Bengals (-3)	CIN (1)
Raiders	Giants (+3)	LV (1)
Patriots	Panthers (+4)	CAR (1)
Cardinals	49ers (+2.5)	ARI (1)

Right off the hop, we're seeing the strain of no longer having the Bills or Rams available to pick. This is going to be a common theme the rest of the way, as both teams have fairly easy schedules down the stretch - especially Buffalo. If you still have one of those teams available, snag them this week without hesitation. If not, let's pivot to one of the other options available to us.

Pick: Colts

I can understand people's hesitancy to pick against AFC offensive player of the week Mike White, given the survivor casualties he racked up in Week 8, but this script will be different. White played at home against a Bengals team that was in not only a letdown spot but also a lookahead. It was the perfect storm for a Jets team that's been far more competent at home this season than on the road (2-1 at MetLife Stadium, 0-4 everywhere else).

Not to discredit New York's win, but Cincinnati was the architect of its own demise. The Bengals inexplicably ran the ball just 15 times, despite leading for a large chunk of the game. Twice they were inside the Jets' 5-yard line only to come away with three points total, and Joe Burrow threw a brutal interception deep in Cincinnati territory with his team leading by five late in the fourth quarter. With more balanced play-calling and better execution on offense, the Bengals would have won comfortably - but we anticipated that being a concern given the spot they were in.

This spot is much better for the Colts, who are home for the second week in a row, which is of greater significance on a short week. It's also a big downgrade for White, who has to come into a hostile environment in prime time to face an Indianapolis team fighting for its life. We've seen a similar situation unfold with Davis Mills, who's a good measuring stick for White. Mills has a 6-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home this season, compared to a 1-to-7 ratio on the road.

Big favorites have a strong win rate on Thursday Night Football, and that's amplified at home. Since 2016, home favorites of at least a touchdown are 14-4-1 ATS and 18-1 SU on Thursdays. Despite a tough loss a week ago, this is a good spot for the Colts who will be buoyed by the Derrick Henry injury news reviving their slim hopes for a division title. Carson Wentz can be turnover prone, but this is still an efficient offense that will command possession, tire out the Jets' defense, and force White into mistakes when he has to play catch up.

The Colts have been a well-oiled machine on offense after a slow start, averaging 28.8 points over the last five games. Jonathan Taylor has found a nice rhythm and Michael Pittman's second-year breakout is legit. Don't be fooled by the 3-5 record as this team could just as easily be 5-3, which would be a more appropriate record given their underlying metrics. Indianapolis actually grades higher than Cincinnati in both pass rush win rate and run stop win rate.

New York is coming off a shocking victory in what was truly the perfect storm, and while White's story is heartwarming, don't let the fourth-year journeyman scare you off picking the Colts this week. This is a great sell-high spot on these Jets.

Alternate pick: Cowboys

Doubt the Cowboys at your own peril. It's difficult to know just how serious to take Dallas, given how much media attention the team commands, but this year's edition is the best they've had in a long time and they deserve to be talked about among the NFL's elite.

The Broncos can be a handful with a full complement of weapons on offense, but last week proved that Jerry Jeudy still isn't fully up to speed and the offensive line remains a hindrance. Denver has allowed the third-most sacks and continues to struggle to find consistency in the running game.

But the biggest issue for the Broncos remains their defense. Denver is trending in the wrong direction, allowing a miserable 6.1 yards per play over its last three games. Meanwhile, the Cowboys lead the league on offense in that same timeframe, managing a ridiculous 6.7 yards per play. Dak Prescott will be back for this game, while Michael Gallup could also return for the first time since Week 1. That would give the Cowboys a full arsenal of weapons against a defense that ranks 29th in pass rush win rate and just traded away its best pass rusher.

Avoid: Dolphins, Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens

Dolphins

The Dolphins are the team I'm most confident in from this list, but you simply can't pick a one-win team at this stage of the season in survivor. While I do think Miami wins here - this isn't a team looking to tank considering they don't own their own first-round pick - the Dolphins are repeatedly finding creative ways to lose. I am also worried about the galvanizing effect Tyrod Taylor's return will have on the Texans.

Chiefs

This is a late addition to the list thanks to the Aaron Rodgers news. Yes, Rodgers is one of the most important players in the NFL, but the Chiefs remain a mess after barely beating the injury-riddled Giants at Arrowhead. We can't say for sure that Daniel Jones is better than Jordan Love - but we can say with the utmost certainty that the Packers have more offensive talent than the Giants. I'll take Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Davante Adams, and Allen Lazard over Devontae Booker, John Ross, a one-legged Sterling Shepard, and a one-handed Kadarius Toney.

Steelers

As we saw against the Seahawks a few weeks ago, the Steelers never make life easy on themselves. The Bears showed signs of life on offense against the 49ers with coach Matt Nagy out of the way - shocker! While Chicago's defense was gashed, it could get Khalil Mack, Eddie Jackson, and Akiem Hicks back for a date with a rather sluggish Pittsburgh offense. With this game being played on Monday night, we likely won't know the status of these three defenders until gameday, which makes this a clear stay-away spot.

Note: The Steelers host the Lions next week, which is a much better spot to save them for.

Ravens

One unexpected spot that teams historically struggle in is at home following a bye week. We've seen that trend hold true this season with the likes of the 49ers, Vikings, and Chargers all losing on home soil coming out of their byes as favorites of -3 to -6. The Ravens fall into the same spot, and they get a Minnesota team in a nice buy-low spot coming off a disappointing loss to Dallas. The Vikings have the recipe on offense to beat Baltimore, and their tendency to play close games also makes this a stay-away option - unless you're looking to add a little more spice to your life.

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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