Best bets to win NFL rushing title after Derrick Henry injury
Derrick Henry looked like a near-certain bet to win his third consecutive rushing title after averaging 117.1 yards through the first eight weeks of the NFL season. Then - as is always the risk with running backs - the Titans star suffered a foot injury in last week's win versus the Colts. It will likely cost him the rest of the season.
That means the market is wide-open for someone to steal the rushing crown from King Henry, and there's no shortage of potential candidates. Here are the odds to lead the NFL in rushing yards entering Week 9 (100-1 or shorter), along with a few of our favorite value plays:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | +250 |
| Nick Chubb | +300 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | +350 |
| Joe Mixon | +550 |
| Darrell Henderson | +1400 |
| Damien Harris | +1600 |
| Lamar Jackson | +2500 |
| James Conner | +2500 |
| Derrick Henry | +3500 |
| James Robinson | +4000 |
| Dalvin Cook | +4000 |
| Najee Harris | +6500 |
| Austin Ekeler | +6500 |
| Aaron Jones | +8000 |
| Zack Moss | +10000 |
| Saquon Barkley | +10000 |
| Leonard Fournette | +10000 |
| Kareem Hunt | +10000 |
| Josh Jacobs | +10000 |
| Javonte Williams | +10000 |
| David Montgomery | +10000 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +10000 |
| Antonio Gibson | +10000 |
| Alvin Kamara | +10000 |
| Melvin Gordon | +10000 |
Jonathan Taylor is currently second league-wide behind Henry with 649 rushing yards, but Chubb deserves to be the betting favorite after running for 584 yards in two fewer games than Taylor.
The Browns star leads all active rushers in yards per game (97.3) and has the highest yards per carry (5.5) among backs with at least 80 carries. He'll need roughly four weeks to catch Taylor at that pace, and he'll benefit from one of the league's easiest remaining schedules.
Betters shouldn't let the timeshare in Cleveland's backfield scare them away, either. Chubb has logged at least 16 carries in four straight games despite seeing a roughly 50% snap share each week, so expect the Browns to sustain his heavy usage as long as the 25-year-old is healthy.
Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings (+4000)Cook has some ground to make up after missing two games through the first eight weeks, but he's one of the few talents on the board who can pull it off. The Vikings star ranks third in rushing yards per game (88.8) behind Henry and Chubb, putting him on pace for roughly 1,330 yards.
The 26-year-old is capable of monster games to close the gap, too. Cook rushed for 131 yards in Week 2 and 140 yards in Week 6 - both against top-end defenses - and faces the fourth-easiest remaining slate for running backs, according to FantasyPros. Health is always a concern with Cook, but he's a steal at 40-1.
Najee Harris, RB, Steelers (+6500)It takes talent to win a rushing title, but it also takes opportunity. Twenty-six of the last 27 NFL rushing champions carried the ball at least 300 times, and over half of them also led the league in rushing attempts.
Harris and Alvin Kamara are the only two rushers currently on pace for at least 300 carries, though Kamara has never handled 200 carries in a year and must now split work with reunited teammate Mark Ingram. Harris, meanwhile, has seen 88.9% of the Steelers' carries by running backs and appears to be trending upward in that regard: He's run the ball 23, 24, and 26 times in Pittsburgh's last three games.
The 23-year-old rookie averaged 98 rushing yards in those three contests - a 1,459-yard pace if he sustained it across the rest of the season. Perhaps that's too lofty a goal for the first-rounder, but he's also yet to have a breakout performance. Given Harris' natural talent and the sky-high volume he'll see down the stretch, this might be the best value on the board.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.
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