NFL Week 9 line moves: QB carousel leads to large shifts

The first half of the season's final week has encountered a similar set of storylines as last week, with COVID-19 again wreaking havoc on rosters while questionable quarterbacks provide uncertainty.

Let's look at the most significant line moves over the course of the week and where value lies.

This one is on the move, as the Texans' purported savior, Tyrod Taylor, has been announced as the starter. The +7 opening line never made much sense, and look for this to flirt with Dolphins -3 by kickoff.

Dak Prescott is back, and this line indicates excitement about his return, paired with a dicey injury report for the Broncos. However, underdog legend Teddy Bridgewater is back in a situation where he thrives, and if you're going to give him 10 points, we'll take those and be content.

There's no major move here, but it's worth noting this went up from -5.5 to Ravens -6 when limits went up Thursday. The Ravens licked their wounds over the bye week, and John Harbaugh is historically strong coming out of the bye at 9-4 ATS. The Vikings lost their most dominant pass-rusher for the season, and if Baltimore wants to open things up and stretch the field, Minnesota's cornerbacks look exploitable with Patrick Peterson out.

The line touched Bengals -3 but has come back off the key number despite bettors losing faith in the Browns. This is because most math models make this game right around a pick'em, so getting any points in a coin toss game is worth a bet.

The number is heading up, and if it touches +7, a bet on the Falcons is required. The Saints are coming off a big win over the Buccaneers but are in a tough spot with uncertainty at quarterback. Going from 4.5-point home underdogs to 6.5-point favorites is a pretty big jump, even if there is a significant drop in opposition quality.

This one has been the bouncer of the week. The Chargers started at -2.5, then found themselves down to -1, and are now back nearing a field goal. This might be a case of market manipulation in trying to set up a big bet on the Chargers at nearly PK. Or, perhaps there was some real concern about Justin Herbert's hand early in the week.

This has been the mover of the week, for obvious reasons. Aaron Rodgers' COVID-19 announcement sent this from Chiefs -1 to as high as -8.5. Anyone who bet Kansas City early could have quickly grabbed the 8.5 with the Packers, creating a healthy middle. That would have dropped the number down to 7.5, and now it's a matter of how much you believe Green Bay will struggle without Rodgers. A 7.5-point spread pegs Green Bay as closer to the Bears' offense. If you think they'll be better than that, you should back the Pack.

Anyone else having flashbacks? This game is shaping up like SNF from this past week when Dak Prescott was questionable. In this case, the QB in question is Kyler Murray, and even if he plays, it's likely to be in a compromised state. With the 49ers being the healthiest they've been all year, hopefully you beat the move on this one and nabbed the Niners at plus money.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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