'Rocket' Richard odds update: Matthews falling as competition tightens
The 2021-22 NHL campaign is already roughly 12% finished and we've seen very little separation in the Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy race.
Leon Draisaitl and Alex Ovechkin lead the pack with 10 goals each, double the current tally of preseason favorite Auston Matthews. Competition is fierce with 18 players having found the back of the net at least seven times this season.
Can Draisaitl and Ovechkin sustain their strong starts? Can Matthews make up lost ground? Let's dive in.
| PLAYER | ODDS (NOV. 8) | ODDS (OCT. 8) |
|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | +400 | +350 |
| Connor McDavid | +400 | +750 |
| Alex Ovechkin | +600 | +1000 |
| Leon Draisaitl | +800 | +700 |
| David Pastrnak | +1200 | +1200 |
| Alex DeBrincat | +1700 | +1700 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | +1700 | +1700 |
| Kyle Connor | +1700 | +1700 |
| Mika Zibanejad | +1700 | +1700 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | +1700 | +1700 |
| Brayden Point | +2000 | +2000 |
| Mikko Rantanen | +2000 | +2000 |
| Nikita Kucherov | +2000 | +2000 |
| Sebastian Aho | +2000 | +2000 |
Only listing players 20-1 or shorter.
Auston Matthews (+400)The Maple Leafs' superstar center is already five goals behind Ovechkin and Draisaitl for top spot. Even so, the market doesn't seem overly concerned. His odds of winning have only dropped from 22.5% to 20%, and it's easy to see why. Matthews has missed three games and yet he's tied for second in the NHL in scoring chances. He's creating quality looks at an insanely high rate, and there's no doubt he has the talent to make the most of them. His shooting percentage (12.8%) will almost certainly rise in time. That, along with all the chances he's creating, is a recipe for success.
Connor McDavid (+400)McDavid is a very real threat to win this award. He's known more for his playmaking, of course, but he is becoming more of a goal-scorer as time goes on. He has the ability to make something out of nothing - as we saw Friday against the Rangers - and is now unleashing a new and improved one-timer on a regular basis. McDavid ranks fourth in expected goals, so the quality looks are there in bulk. Expect McDavid to be in the mix until the end.
Alex Ovechkin (+600)Ovechkin was one of the guys we backed during the preseason. Quite frankly, +1000 felt egregious for the generation's best and highest-volume shooter. It's still early, but getting that number sure feels like robbery. Ovechkin leads the league in shot attempts and shots on goal, and he appears completely unbothered by the absence of his usual running mate, Nicklas Backstrom.
Leon Draisaitl (+800)Getting the current co-leader at +800 seems like a steal. However, the picture isn't as promising beneath the surface. Draisaitl is doing a fantastic job of getting into dangerous areas when he does shoot; the problem is a lack of volume. More than 40 players - 43, to be exact - have recorded more shots on goal. That's problematic because, as good as Draisaitl is, he won't shoot 30% forever. His career average is 17.4% and he's finished above 20% just once. He really needs to increase the shot volume if he's going to challenge for the "Rocket" Richard.
David Pastrnak (+1000)Pastrnak is one of the game's best finishers but something is off this year. I think these odds imply a much better chance than Pastrnak actually has based on what we've seen. Pastrnak ranks 54th in expected goals, and 79 players have recorded more scoring chances. He has the talent to score from range but is simply not generating enough quality or quantity to pile up goals at the necessary rate to compete for this award.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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