NFL Week 10 survivor picks: Which big favorite should you trust?

Absolute carnage.

Week 9 was a bloodbath for survivor pools with the Bills, Rams, Cowboys, Saints, and even 49ers losing as sizeable favorites. If you followed last week's column, you advanced courtesy of the Colts' win over the Jets on Thursday and were able to sit back and enjoy Sunday's chaos.

On the surface, Week 10 looks easier to negotiate, but at this stage of the season, there's no such thing as safe. Let's map out the top choices:

AWAY	HOME	PICK (CR)
Jaguars	Colts (-10.5)	IND (9)
Panthers	Cardinals (-10.5)	ARI (9)
Buccaneers	Washington (+9.5)	TB (9)
Falcons	Cowboys (-9)	DAL (8)
Ravens	Dolphins (+7.5)	BAL (8)
Bills	Jets (+13)	BUF (7)
Lions	Steelers (-9)	PIT (6)
Seahawks	Packers (-3.5)	GB (3)
Browns	Patriots (-1.5)	NE (2)
Rams	49ers (+4)	LAR (2)
Vikings	Chargers (-2.5)	MIN (1)
Saints	Titans (-3)	TEN (1)
Eagles	Broncos (-3)	PHI (1)
Chiefs	Raiders (+2.5)	LV (1)

Confidence rating (CR) is the author's level of trust in picking the winner of each given game

Colts (vs. Jaguars)

I picked the Colts last week, but if you didn't, don't hesitate. Last week was essentially the Jaguars' season, and I'm expecting a significant letdown as they hit the road with Trevor Lawrence hobbled against a white-hot and rested Colts squad. It's really hard to imagine Jacksonville finding the same level of intensity again, and there's no way Urban Meyer had more than one rabbit in his hat.

Cardinals (vs. Panthers)

If you're considering the Cardinals, wait for clarity on the injury front. As good as Colt McCoy looked last week, don't pin your hopes on him against a feisty Panthers pass rush. Kyler Murray has to be back for this to be playable, and ideally at least one of DeAndre Hopkins or A.J. Green will return too. Without Murray, I'd bump this to about a six on the CR scale. P.J. Walker starting for the Panthers helps make the case for Arizona. Sam Darnold is easy to pick on, but Walker has looked terrible in limited mop-up duty, completing just 3 of 15 pass attempts this season.

With Kyler and perhaps one of the starting wideouts, it's very difficult to see the Cardinals slipping up against the Walker-led Panthers.

Buccaneers (@ Washington)

Washington is at least a little scary as a home underdog - an offense with solid weapons that has success moving the ball. However, its red-zone success rate is putrid, and its inability to finish drives will be amplified by Tampa Bay's defense. It's also notable that the Buccaneers are getting healthy in the secondary, so the route to beat them over the past six weeks is quickly disappearing.

The other case for taking the Bucs: When else are you going to do it? Next week's game against the Giants, who are on bye this week and getting everyone back on offense, is dangerous. After that, there's nothing appealing on their schedule until Week 17 against the Jets. Coming off the bye, Tampa's had two weeks to ruminate on losing to the Saints. Tom Brady and Co. take out their frustrations here.

Ravens (@ Dolphins)

There's uncertainty surrounding Tua Tagovailoa's status, and if Jacoby Brissett's under center, the Dolphins won't keep up with the Ravens - Miami gives up way too many big plays on defense and doesn't have the firepower to match when it falls behind. Tagovailoa at least gives me momentary pause; I'm higher on him than most, and he was really rounding into form before injuring his finger. A Tua start bumps this to a confidence rating of six or seven, at which point I'd probably save Baltimore for next week against the Bears.

Cowboys (vs. Falcons)

Unlike with the Buccaneers, there are some appealing spots to take the Cowboys in the future. They still play Washington twice, and they host the Raiders in Week 12, which is a really tough week for survivor purposes. That's reason enough to save Dallas, and while I believe this is a solid buy-low spot, I'm comfortable sitting this one out and waiting for the Cowboys to right the ship. I don't think the Falcons are very good, and they pose much less of a threat than the Broncos, but Atlanta's running hot. If you must, however, I'm OK with the Cowboys here.

Bills (@ Jets)

If our picks align, you can't use the Bills anyway, but there's legitimate cause for concern with this team. It starts with Josh Allen, whose 2020 season looks more like an outlier than a breakout as inconsistency and turnovers plague him again. This is a division game on the road, and there's a chance that Mike White - who balled out before getting hurt against the Colts - won't turn back into a frog anytime soon.

Buffalo is set to host the Panthers, Falcons, and Jets later this season. If you still have the Bills, save them until we get some assurance.

Avoid: Steelers (vs. Lions)

The reason to pick the Steelers this week is that Detroit is a truly bad football team bereft of talent and loaded with injuries. But there are more reasons to stay away.

While the Lions may be awful, they compete hard and they're wildly unpredictable. They were seconds away from beating both the Ravens and Vikings, and they held a fourth-quarter lead over the Rams at SoFi Stadium. This is also a terrible schedule spot for Pittsburgh: a short week with the Lions coming off their bye. And frankly, the Steelers - who needed late heroics to beat Geno Smith and Justin Fields at Heinz Field - aren't that good. I don't say this often, but Jared Goff is a step up (a small one, but still) from both of those quarterbacks, and at some point, Pittsburgh's luck will run out.

Week 10 pick: Buccaneers

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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