Ravens-Dolphins best bets: Lots of love for Baltimore on Thursday night

The AFC North-leading Baltimore Ravens head to Hard Rock Stadium for a date with the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football, looking to at least temporarily pull into the conference's top spot.

Here's how we're betting Ravens-Dolphins:

C Jackson Cowart: Ravens -7.5

Laying this many points on the road is always a scary proposition, especially after what we saw last week. But don't let recent results cloud your judgment here.

Road favorites of more than a touchdown are 34-21-2 ATS (61.8%) since 2018, while the Ravens are 4-2-1 ATS in that spot with a 12-6-2 ATS record in all games over that stretch when giving 7.5 or more points. They won 19 of those 20 contests outright and outscored their opponents by an average of 16.4 points, winning 14 of 20 by at least eight points. If there's a safe team to bet in this spot, it's Baltimore.

I was high on the Dolphins entering the year but have seen absolutely nothing to convince me to bet them here. A home win over the Houston Texans does little to compel me to take the points this week, especially considering Miami turned it over an astounding five times and still eked out a win. That won't happen against the Ravens. Their offense was humming in Week 8, and they desperately need a win Thursday to keep their narrow lead in the AFC North.

Alex Moretto: Lamar Jackson over 233.5 pass yards

I understand the reasoning behind the low total here - one Jackson has gone over in seven of his eight contests this season - but it doesn't mean I agree with it. Oddsmakers are expecting a positive game script for the heavily favored Ravens, resulting in fewer pass attempts for Jackson as the game progresses.

I'm looking at this a different way, though. Look for the Dolphins to sell out to stop Jackson on the ground, forcing him to beat them through the air - the same approach Miami took in the last meeting. The Dolphins held Jackson to just six rushing yards in that game, but the quarterback managed 324 passing yards in a lopsided 59-10 win - John Harbaugh has never been shy about running up the score.

Without Latavius Murray, the Ravens aren't going to be too run-heavy with their stable of old-timers in the backfield. Instead, they'll take to the air to attack a Dolphins defense that's allowed a league-high 41 plays of 20-plus yards. With Sammy Watkins back in the fold, Baltimore's top receiving trio will play together for the first time all season, and Jackson will make the most of it.

Matt Russell: Ravens team total over 27.5

I've already made Baltimore my cornerstone for teasers this week and gave out a trio of player props that interest me, all of which require a big offensive game from the Ravens.

I'm less confident in the Baltimore defense here, and I'm allergic to laying over a touchdown on the road in the NFL. Whether the Dolphins push the Ravens to score or Lamar Jackson and Co. do so just for fun, I'll take the over on Baltimore's team total against a Miami defense that isn't nearly as good as its inflated metrics following a visit from the generous Texans on Sunday.

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