Chiefs-Raiders best bets: Opinions split on AFC West clash

Entering Week 10, just half a game separates first and last place in the AFC West. The NFL's tightest division takes center stage Sunday night when the 5-3 Las Vegas Raiders host the 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs.

Here's how we're betting Chiefs-Raiders.

C Jackson Cowart: Raiders +2.5

When will the market stop blindly pricing the Chiefs as favorites? Kansas City has been favored in every game this year despite a 2-7 ATS record, and it scraped by the injury-riddled Giants and Jordan Love-led Packers in the last two weeks.

The Raiders are more dangerous than either of those teams, and you could argue they've been better than the Chiefs, too. Las Vegas ranks fourth in the NFL in net yards per play (0.94) and has posted nearly identical marks to Kansas City in average yards (394.5 versus 393.3) and points (24.5 versus 24.6) with far fewer turnovers.

The Raiders' defense, on the other hand, has been far superior to the Chiefs', which ranks dead last on opponent yards per play (6.3) and is among the league's worst against the rush and pass. Las Vegas has amassed 400-plus yards in each of its last three games and has the firepower to outlast its division rival in this one.

Alex Moretto: Chiefs -2.5

Am I a sucker for still believing? Maybe. But this is a terrific buy-low on the Chiefs who were hefty favorites in the lookahead. Yes, Kansas City has underperformed and isn't going to suddenly right the ship, but this is too big a discount for me to pass up.

As bad as the Chiefs have looked offensively, I'm a firm believer in talent winning out in the end, and there's too much of it on this unit for it to not get into some sort of rhythm. I'm also lower on these Raiders than the market is. A hot start helped elevate their stock, and they're still riding that reputation despite running into all sorts of trouble on and off the field.

The Raiders' schedule has been cake this year and they've still struggled, with their only truly impressive win coming in Week 1 against the Ravens. Losses to the Giants and Bears over the last four games don't exactly boost their resume, either.

The Chiefs' poor ATS record dating back to last season has received a lot of attention over the past week, and we're seeing an over-correction in the market as a result. The Raiders played them well last year, but this is now a depleted roster that wasn't that good to begin with. The Chiefs make it three wins in a row Sunday night at Allegiant Stadium.

Matt Russell: Chiefs -2.5

Is this the bottom of the market for the Chiefs? Maybe we're trying to catch a falling knife here, but at -2.5, the next stop is the Raiders being favored, and for all the issues that Kansas City has had, we're not in a world where that's the case.

It's easy to look back at both the success that the Raiders had against the Chiefs last year and Kansas City's horrific ATS record across the last season-and-a-half and proclaim the Raiders will win. However, when the line opened last Sunday, I couldn't believe we wouldn't get any value with Las Vegas.

Throw in the (rightful) dismissal of another 2020 first-round pick and a thin secondary getting thinner, and this has to be the spot where the Chiefs show us more than they have this season.

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