NFL Week 10 betting takeaways: Who wants the top spot in the ratings?
Week 9's insanity carried over to the controlled chaos of Week 10.
Good NFL bettors love controlled chaos. It's what creates value week to week. While everyone else takes what happened the previous week, or in short sample sizes, to be set in stone, our level-headed approach will reveal the overreactions that we'll take advantage of.
Here are the ratings, followed by why we're making adjustments to some teams and not to others.
| TEAM | RATING | RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 77 | 65-85 |
| Bills | 74 | 50-80 |
| Cowboys | 69 | 45-80 |
| Rams | 69 | 60-75 |
| Packers | 68 | 60-75 |
| Cardinals | 68 | 55-75 |
| Ravens | 67 | 55-75 |
| Chiefs | 66 | 45-80 |
| Chargers | 66 | 50-75 |
| Patriots | 62 | 40-70 |
| Browns | 61 | 55-75 |
| Titans | 58 | 50-65 |
| Saints | 56 | 45-65 |
| Vikings | 55 | 45-60 |
| 49ers | 54 | 50-65 |
| Bengals | 54 | 35-70 |
| Colts | 51 | 35-60 |
| Seahawks | 50 | 40-70 |
| Panthers | 49 | 35-55 |
| Broncos | 47 | 40-55 |
| Steelers | 46 | 40-60 |
| Raiders | 46 | 35-55 |
| Eagles | 45 | 30-60 |
| Washington | 43 | 40-55 |
| Bears | 42 | 35-55 |
| Falcons | 39 | 25-50 |
| Dolphins | 39 | 30-55 |
| Giants | 37 | 30-50 |
| Jaguars | 32 | 25-40 |
| Lions | 26 | 20-35 |
| Jets | 25 | 20-35 |
| Texans | 20 | 15-30 |
I'd make the case the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would still be favored on a neutral field against the teams below them. They've lost back-to-back games around their bye week, but that's just them playing to the bottom of their range due to key absences on offense and a cluster of injuries in the secondary. I'm only dropping their average rating by one, down to 77, because I think they're the best team in the league when at full strength. Plus, no one else seems to want to grab the mantle.
The Baltimore Ravens lost to the Miami Dolphins, the Buffalo Bills still have that odor of their defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Dallas Cowboys are all over the map, and the Los Angeles Rams just lost to a Derrick Henry-less Tennessee Titans team at home. However, I'll bump the Kansas City Chiefs back up because their defense is much-improved with Chris Jones back and a few other personnel moves.
Pumping the brakesThe uber-consistent Green Bay Packers move up a tick, but, like Kansas City, they'll head upward if the defense continues to excel. A shutout of the Seattle Seahawks is impressive, but no one was drooling over Green Bay when that game was 3-0 for seemingly forever.
For the second straight week, the Titans' run game wasn't there. Instead, they relied on a fumbled kickoff return, two missed extra points, and as dubious of a roughing the passer penalty you'll ever see extending a drive. Those are things that are hard to envision all going the Titans' way in their next closely lined game.
The Arizona Cardinals couldn't sustain their effort, but that just means they're human. Many teams are up one week and down the next. The Cleveland Browns fall into that category with a no-show after showing out. The Los Angeles Chargers fell at home to the Minnesota Vikings, so concern levels are rising with Brandon Staley's group. But you know what that means - there'll likely be value on Los Angeles next week.
Unsurprisingly, given who their coach is, the Patriots remain consistent, raising the low-end of their range. But how high can we go with their average rating?
Despite Russell Wilson's return, we wouldn't see Seattle as just 3-point underdogs in Green Bay if that game was played again. We were reminded that the Seahawks weren't particularly good before Wilson went out, and his injury appeared to linger.
The Carolina Panthers get a bump as the Sam Darnold experiment is over. While Cam Newton's return gave them a jolt for one week, a healthy Christian McCaffrey and a good defense are enough to project them back to league average.
Grim realitiesPittsburgh Steelers fans will excuse a tie with the Detroit Lions, as they were without Ben Roethlisberger. But the market determined he was worth just two points when the line moved from PIT -8 to PIT -6 on Saturday night's announcement that Mason Rudolph would start. The Lions found one play that worked and ran it enough to almost get them their first win.
The air might be coming out of the Las Vegas Raiders. Their defense looks a lot like it has in years' past, while the offense struggled in a spot where many expected them to have success. They need to be dipped back under league average.
Are the Jaguars officially frisky? The Indianapolis Colts take a downgrade in victory, and the Jags move up a little, as Indy used the strength of a punt-block touchdown to cling to a win at home against Jacksonville.
The Washington Football Team was impressive in closing out the defending champs, but Chase Young's injury leaves a gaping hole in its already suspect defense. So, even in the win, Washington's rating drops a little.
The Philadelphia Eagles proved they should've never opened as 3-point underdogs against the Denver Broncos. The line plummeting to PK before kickoff was warranted, as you would've known beforehand if you'd consulted these ratings.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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