COVID cases predicted to rise in Hamilton but how much depends on you

COVID cases are expected to rise in Hamilton similar to the current provincial trend, but modelling shows the difference that masking, physical distancing and vaccination can make.

Scarsin Forecasting predicts a peak of about 40 cases a day in Hamilton by the end of December - more than triple the current daily average of 13.

However, the best-case scenario sees the average daily increase stay as low as 20 compared to the worst possibility of 80.

The main factors at play in the scenarios are vaccination rates and the number of residents continuing to follow pandemic rules.

It shows the delicate balance Hamilton is maintaining in keeping the aggressive Delta variant at bay with a provincial pause in reopening, while public health struggles to get at least 90 per cent of eligible residents vaccinated.

The control of COVID-19 remains dependent on both vaccinations and the practice of public health measures," Dr. Elizabeth Richardson told Hamilton's board of health Monday. As we continue to talk about going forward, one or the other is not sufficient."

School vaccination rates released for the first time Monday show Hamilton has pockets of the unvaccinated that are vulnerable to Delta. The divide is vast with as few as 18 per cent of eligible students vaccinated in some schools compared to nearly 89 per cent in others.

The numbers - a full searchable list is on the TheSpec.com - show Hamilton has a long way to go with only 20 of 154 schools having 80 per cent or more of their eligible students vaccinated.

The school rates paint a stark picture of how religion and socioeconomic factors are driving COVID vaccination.

There is potential for the gap to widen even more as kids age five to 11 are expected to become eligible for the COVID shot within weeks.

It's significant considering Scarsin Forecasting shows how vaccinating even 40 per cent of them with one dose by the end of the year will start to drive Hamilton's COVID numbers down by Jan. 31.

The modelling predicts the immunized kids would prevent 113 cases. This is on top of nearly 1,000 more Hamiltonians spared COVID infections if enough residents get their shots, wear masks and keep their number of close contacts down.

One sign that Hamiltonians are still being cautious is mobility data showing movement remains below pre-pandemic levels.

This is a good thing as it generally indicates a reduction in potential transmission," epidemiologist Ruth Sanderson told the board.

Workplace mobility, which measures residents physically going to work, is 16 per cent lower than it was before COVID.

While it's good that some who don't need to be in the office are remaining at home, Sanderson cautioned, We have not seen levels this high in Hamilton since March 2020."

Hamilton's numbers have been stable since the third week of October - in direct contrast to a provincial increase. However, cases are predicated to rise as cooler weather drives gatherings indoors and capacity limits were lifted in many settings before the pause in reopening.

One-third of cases are predicated to be among those age 19 and younger, while those age 20 to 59 are also expected to be disproportionately affected. This has been a trend throughout the fourth wave.

Much of the reason for the rising number of infections in young people is low vaccine coverage among these groups, as seniors age 70 to 84 have already achieved rates at or above 90 per cent.

Joanna Frketich is a Hamilton-based reporter covering health for The Spectator. Reach her via email: jfrketich@thespec.com