NFL Week 11 line moves: Shifts going away from key numbers

As usual, this week's line moves mostly feature murky injury and illness news. But, so far, the fluctuations have come in relative point-spread dead spots.

Lamar Jackson missing practice with a non-COVID-19 illness has to be the reason why this number has dipped off of the opening line of Ravens -6.

The Bears' injury report looks as bad as it has the last few weeks, and even though they've acquitted themselves well, my numbers have this line up over -7. The Ravens closed -8 in Miami a week ago, and Chicago can't be considered 3.5 points better than the Dolphins.

Obviously, if Jackson is out for this game, the line would close near pick'em.

I missed my opportunity early in the week. With an eye on betting the Browns in a blowout spot, I stared down a Cleveland -9.5 bet and didn't pull the trigger, hoping to get a bigger wager down when limits go up later in the week. Hours later, it was gone, and this number moved up to -12 before seeing some buyback on the Lions.

Jared Goff's oblique injury seems like it's going to hold him out of the lineup, which means either David Blough or Tim Boyle will get the call. Detroit got no pressure on Mason Rudolph last week; if that's the case this week, you'll see the good version of Baker Mayfield, especially with Nick Chubb returning to form a two-headed rushing monster with D'Ernest Johnson.

Patience ran out as sharp bettors were hoping to get a flat +3 on the Vikings, but money has come in on Minnesota on the spread and moneyline. When comparing these teams, it's easy to see why - the Vikings lost to the Cardinals and Bengals thanks to one play, while the Packers beat those same two clubs thanks to one play. Minnesota and Green Bay are more evenly matched than the general public believes, and anything at a plus-price is worth a bet on the Vikings.

The Jets are making head-shaking decisions at quarterback, rolling with Joe Flacco this week. This confusing piece of news has lifted the line off the key number of Dolphins -3 in a game I want nothing to do with Sunday.

The Jaguars touched +7, but it didn't last very long as money has come in on Jacksonville in what's considered a great spot for the team. The Jags are facing a 49ers club that has to travel for an early kickoff on a short week after a big Monday Night Football win over a division rival. I'm already on record as saying Jacksonville is live to get the upset here as long as James Robinson takes the field in Duval.

Basking in the glow of Cam Newton's return to the Panthers' locker room, the line for this game pushed through Panthers -2 all the way to -3.5 before sharp money took note and grabbed Washington +3.5, which was widely available during the middle of the week. My numbers agree with all of this, as I have this game slightly under two points in favor of the Panthers. So, I grabbed Washington +3.5.

This game is a mess, but its existence between Chargers -4 and -6 doesn't inspire much need for a bet since it hasn't spent any time on a key number. On the Steelers' side, Ben Roethlisberger's availability will move the market, especially after Rudolph did so little with so much time in the pocket last week. For the Chargers, the defense has been ravaged with COVID-19-related exclusions, including Joey Bosa and Jerry Tillery. I'll wait to see who's in and who's out before making a play for Sunday night's contest, but I'll look to back the favorite if Big Ben can't go.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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