NFL Week 11 O/U best bets: Bills to exploit Colts' suspect secondary

We went 2-1 on our total plays for the second week in a row last week and the third time in the last four. Can we pull off the perfect sweep in Week 11?

Carolina was a garbage-time field goal away from an 8-2 record to the under after Sunday's 34-10 win over the Cardinals. That shouldn't come as a surprise, as we've been riding the Panthers as under cash cows all season long.

The catalyst is this team's stellar defense, which ranks No. 1 in yards allowed per drive (23.31) and No. 2 in points allowed per drive (1.56) despite lousy field position on a majority of opposing drives. That's the fault of an enigmatic offense that cracked 30 points last week for the first time all season.

Washington's 29-point effort in Week 10 was its best since early October after scoring just one touchdown in each of its prior three games. If you're worried about Cam Newton's resurgence, betting under Washington's team total might be the safer call, but the full-game total should fall well below this mark, too.

Pick: Under 43

Which of these offenses do you trust to crack 25 points? Surely it's not the Browns, who have been held to 17 or fewer points in five of their last seven games. The Lions haven't been much better, scoring fewer than 20 points in eight consecutive contests after managing 16 points through five quarters in Pittsburgh a week ago.

The situation is Cleveland is particularly worrisome after last week's 7-point showing against the Patriots, who knocked Baker Mayfield out of the game with a knee injury. He's day-to-day and will likely play in this one, but can he finish it? He's been sacked 13 times across his last four starts and has missed snaps in three of those four contests.

The Browns' defense has been torched on occasion this year, but it's still held three of its last four opponents to 16 points or less. Barring a pair of defensive touchdowns or a Nick Chubb takeover, this should finish comfortably under.

Pick: Under 42.5

In the right matchup, the Colts' defense is among the best in the league. In the wrong one, it's a liability. Indianapolis ranks No. 2 in rush defense DVOA but is just No. 23 against the pass, which is a dangerous split against MVP favorite Josh Allen and the Bills' elite aerial attack.

Buffalo bounced back in a big way last week with a 45-point effort against the Jets, who surrendered 366 yards through the air in a game that was never close. This contest should be more competitive, but the Colts' shoddy secondary is no match for the NFL's most prolific offense on a per-drive basis.

Keep an eye on Stefon Diggs, who enters Week 11 ranked seventh in receiving yards (750), sixth in first downs (38), and fifth in receptions of 40-plus yards (4). If he can get behind Indy's last line of defense once or twice on Sunday, it'll help push this game over in a hurry.

Pick: Over 50

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.

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