NFL Week 12 O/U best bets: Watch out for surging Eagles offense

We've now gone 2-1 on our total plays in three consecutive weeks after hitting two of our three picks in Week 11. Here are our best bets for Week 12:

Bears (-3.5, 41.5) @ Lions
Nov. 25, 12:30 p.m. ET

In some ways, this one feels too easy, as it's hard to justify this total being anywhere over 40. Both of these teams are 7-3 to the under this season, largely thanks to substandard quarterback play and underrated defenses.

Justin Fields and Andy Dalton have both been abysmal this year for a Bears offense averaging 16.3 points per game. Just behind Chicago on the scoring leaderboard are the Lions (16 PPG), who'll likely return starting passer Jared Goff on a short week after he missed Sunday's 13-10 loss to the Browns.

That game marked Detroit's ninth straight contest under 20 points, but also its second game holding the opponent below that mark, too. Expect a similar result Thursday in what should be a tough holiday watch.

Pick: Under 41.5

Jets @ Texans (-3, 44.5)
Nov. 28, 1 p.m.

For most of this season, the Texans' offense has been one of our favorite and most consistent fades behind inept rookie passer Davis Mills. This is a different team with Tyrod Taylor at the helm, though, and it's worth betting over on this group until the market adjusts.

Houston scored 22 points last week against a stout Titans defense despite Taylor's subpar showing through the air, which was to be expected after such a long layoff. The surprise was the Texans' defense holding Tennessee to 13 points, though the Titans still gained 420 yards and likely should've come away with a score or two more than they did.

Expect the Texans' defense to revert to form this week, while their offense should have a field day against a Jets unit that's allowed an NFL-worst 32 points per game, including 45-plus in three of the team's last five contests.

Pick: Over 44.5

Eagles (-3.5, 46) @ Giants
Nov. 28, 1 p.m.

It might be time to start taking this Eagles offense seriously - like, really seriously. Philadelphia ranks eighth in points per game (27) after Sunday's 40-point outburst against the Saints, which marked the Eagles' fourth consecutive game with at least 175 rushing yards.

Philadelphia has averaged 34.5 points per game in that stretch on the back of Jalen Hurts, who rushed for three touchdowns a week ago after two of the better passing performances of his career in the previous two contests. He's now flanked by versatile back Miles Sanders, who rushed for 94 yards in his first game back from injured reserve.

Those two will be trouble for a Giants defense ranked 30th in rush DVOA, as well as 23rd in yards allowed per drive (35.5) and points allowed per drive (2.3). Philly's defense is only marginally better on the year, which should mean plenty of points Sunday.

Pick: Over 46

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.

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