NFL MVP odds: Brady the prohibitive favorite ahead of final 4 weeks

Tom Brady opened this season as a 16-1 shot to win the fourth MVP award of his storied career. With four weeks left, he's the odds-on favorite.

That's how impressive of a season it's been for the 44-year-old passer, who enters Week 15 as a -175 favorite to add another trophy to his 22-year collection. The Buccaneers quarterback separated himself from a crowded field with another masterful performance Sunday, and oddsmakers think he's more likely than not to finish the job down the stretch.

Brady outdueled former MVP favorite Josh Allen in last week's 33-27 overtime win over the Bills. He threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns to help Tampa Bay maintain its 10-3 record, which is tied for the best mark in the NFL. Brady also built upon his league leads in passing yards (4,134), passing touchdowns (36), first downs (208), and QBR (67.7), further cementing his case as the NFL's top passer this season.

It's an exhaustive list of accolades for Brady, who additionally set the NFL record for career completions (7,156) on Sunday and notched his 700th career touchdown pass on a 58-yard strike to Breshad Perriman for the walk-off winner. That clinched Brady's fourth game-winning drive this season - tied for third most in the league - which is already more than he's had in any season since 2013 when he finished second in MVP voting behind Peyton Manning.

If Brady holds on for his fourth MVP award, he'll move into second all time behind Manning (5) and break a tie with four other players, including reigning MVP winner Aaron Rodgers (3). The Packers quarterback is Brady's biggest threat this year, as he leads the NFL in passer rating (108.8) and quarterback record (10-2) while boasting a stellar 27-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Rodgers has especially come on late, averaging 344.3 yards with 10 combined touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last three games to carry Green Bay into a share for the NFL's best record with Tampa Bay. That pace could put him in contention for back-to-back MVP awards, but a nagging toe injury that he aggravated in last week's win could hinder his production down the stretch.

If it isn't Rodgers, the rest of the field looks hard-pressed to close the gap on Brady over the final four weeks. Kyler Murray looked like an MVP front-runner early in the year and has the talent to go on a scintillating late-season run, but injuries and the Cardinals' stellar play without him have hindered his case. Matthew Stafford has the statistical profile of a winner - ranking in the top three in nearly every relevant category - but his Rams have fallen short of expectations in too many key spots to feel comfortable backing him at this price.

Indeed, if Brady is going to lose the award at this point, he'd have to beat himself. And we've learned time and time again over the last two decades - and especially in the last two seasons - not to bet against the GOAT.

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.

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