NFL Week 15 best bets: Fade Jaguars in 1st game after firing Meyer
We went 2-1 on our NFL best bets a week ago. This week, we enter arguably the craziest slate of the season, which has already been marred by COVID-19 outbreaks and postponements. Keep an eye on developing news before making any bets - and realize that in this week, in particular, earlier isn't always better.
Here are our best bets for Week 15 as of Friday evening:
Patriots @ Colts (-2.5, 46)Dec. 18, 8:20 p.m. ET
The Colts opened as 2-point favorites here and have moved to -2.5 as kickoff nears, but I'm not sure I buy the love for Indy in this spot. More importantly, I just can't justify fading the Patriots, who are the second-best team in the league per DVOA but are priced like equals in this matchup.
New England enters this week on a seven-game win streak and owns the NFL's second-best scoring offense (32.1) and top scoring defense (10.4) over that stretch. The latter should come as no surprise for a Bill Belichick-led squad late in the season, but the Patriots' offensive surge is the product of stellar play from rookie Mac Jones, who has posted the second-best passer rating (106.1) by any starter since Week 7.
The Colts' defense has shown elite tendencies this year, but their pass defense is below-average by advanced metrics even after shutting down the Texans a week ago. This line should be shaded much further to New England, and I'm happy to take the points on the better side.
Pick: Patriots +2.5
Texans @ Jaguars (-4.5, 39.5)Dec. 19, 1 p.m.
Arguably the two worst teams in the league face off on Sunday, and the market has taken a clear stance in favor of the Jaguars. While it may seem like a savvy play to bet them in their first game without Urban Meyer, this is still the same lousy roster that lost 11 of its first 13 games. Handing the keys to an interim coach with mere days to prepare isn't exactly a tasty proposition.
In fact, laying this many points on a team this bad is nearly unheard of. Since 1990, just three teams have been favored by more than four points despite owning a 2-11 record or worse this late in the year. Those teams went 1-2 ATS. Jacksonville has been favored just twice in the last two years and lost those games by a combined 34 points.
You may have to plug your nose before betting the Texans after consecutive losses by 20-plus points, but they're virtually identical to the Jaguars by advanced metrics and box-score numbers alike. Take the points, but save yourself the trouble of watching it play out.
Pick: Texans +4.5
Raiders (-3.5, 38) @ BrownsDec. 20, 5 p.m.
This was one of three games the NFL postponed on Friday, and there's obviously a chance it doesn't get played at all. If it does, though, it profiles as one of the best under spots of the season.
Even before the Browns' COVID-19 outbreak, their offense entered this week having scored 17 or fewer points in seven of its last 10 games. Then came the positive tests, which encompass 24 players and three coaches as of Friday evening - including quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum; skill position stars Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, and Kareem Hunt; linemen Jedrick Wills and Wyatt Teller.
The Raiders have avoided an outbreak as of Friday, but even at full strength, this unit has mustered fewer than 17 points in five of their last six games. A few extra days will help the Browns build out their roster, but this will still be an ugly game likely headlined by a backup quarterback and two sluggish, overmatched offenses.
Pick: Under 38
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.
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