NFL Week 17 Teasers: Waiting on Wentz

If you've learned anything from our weekly foray into making valuable teaser bets, you know we look for two things: reliability and capturing key numbers. The latter is easy - it's a numbers-based mission and a somewhat basic one at that. It's the former that's getting more difficult.

The Ravens and Bengals were set for an AFC North showdown lined at -2.5 that should have been a tightly contested tilt. Then it fell apart. Both Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley were forced to miss the game, while the Ravens' secondary suffered complete decimation. Joe Burrow took advantage, and a line move up to Bengals -7.5 ended up short. A perfectly good +8.5 teaser leg from early in the week proved unreliable.

While the writing was on the wall for Baltimore before the game from a market standpoint, it was the opposite for the Chargers. You could steal a teaser leg of -2 early last week when Los Angeles was -8 on the road against the Texans. The game closed Chargers -12.5; bettors were effectively getting a 10.5-point teaser leg for the price of a 6-pointer. It didn't matter. Without Corey Linsley, Austin Ekeler, and Mike Williams, the offense struggled, and an already hapless defense couldn't scare Davis Mills without Joey Bosa.

Fundamental reliability is at an all-time low. Valuable tease legs are one tweet away from being blown up, and even the good ones at kickoff might not work out that way.

When the Colts announced Tuesday that Carson Wentz had entered COVID-19 protocols, the Indianapolis -1.5 teaser leg appeared to go away. On the plus side, with the line briefly reopening at Colts -2.5, the Raiders became an interesting tease piece at +8.5.

I use the term "briefly" because it was reported shortly thereafter that the NFL would be altering its protocols, meaning an asymptomatic Wentz could be eligible to play Sunday. With a decent teaser leg either way, it's just a matter of playing the waiting game.

From a numbers standpoint, not all teaser legs are created equal. The biggest mistake novice bettors make is teasing through zero; they're wasting valuable price points on a number the game probably won't land on: a tie. So, how can we maximize the six-point move? How can we get what we're paying for at -270 per leg?

Let's look at the mathematically optimal plays available to pair with either the Colts -1.5 (with Wentz) or Raiders +8.5 (without Wentz) for Week 17:

Paying -270 for the Bears to beat anyone seems fraught with peril. Speaking of the Raiders, the "Just Win, Baby" group also includes the Saints to beat the Panthers, the Seahawks to beat the Lions, and the Packers to beat the Vikings.

None of those are particularly appealing at a -270 price. The Saints' offense hasn't looked great no matter who starts at quarterback. The Seahawks just lost to the Bears at home. The Vikings already beat the Packers this season and have the run game to do it again. In fact, I'd be more tempted to bet each underdog at +220 or better on the moneyline.

Though it's not the most traditional teaser leg, I've included the Broncos with a tease up to +11.5 against the Chargers. Los Angeles hasn't shown an ability to blow out anyone, and Denver has already handled this opponent comfortably. I'd rather rely on the Broncos to stay close - even with Drew Lock at the helm - in pairing them with the Colts over anyone else.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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