Ontario’s early Omicron epicentre may show a way to control — but not stop — virus spread
Just as Kingston's early experiences with Omicron alerted Ontario to what a wave driven by this variant may look like, the head of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table is now pointing to the city as an example to follow when it comes to controlling - but not quashing - its spread.
There's no indication that cases of Omicron are going down in Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health region, with another record high of active cases noted Thursday.
But the pace of virus spread in the region hard-struck by Omicron has seemed to steady, and one expert says that's what we should now be aiming for.
Between Dec. 2 and Dec. 19, COVID-19 cases in Kingston rose sharply by 520 cases per 100,000 residents. Since then, the cases per 100,000 have gone up and down by no more than 100 cases per 100,000 residents.
Peter Juni, scientific director of the science advisory table, is hopeful that Kingston is flattening the Omicron curve, and that it may mean other jurisdictions can do it too.
I believe this is true stabilizing that is based on the behaviour of people," he said. Case stabilization at a high level is within reach."
That's top-of-mind for many as Ontario heads into a new year with record-setting COVID-19 case counts, as well as rising virus-related deaths and hospitalizations.
Public health officials in Ontario reported 18,445 new cases Saturday, noting the figure was an underestimate due to changes in testing availability.
The number trounces Friday's record-setting tally of 16,713 new diagnoses. Twelve deaths from COVID-19 were also recorded Saturday.
Juni said there are many reasons to think differently about our current wave driven by Omicron than previous pandemic waves. By and large, he is encouraged by data showing people who get Omicron are less likely to end up in hospital or the ICU, and that this is especially so for vaccinated people.
A milder form of COVID-19 infecting large parts of the population may even increase the level of community immunity in Ontario in the long run.
Once we are through with this one, things will get easier because nearly all of us will have had some sort of immunity," Juni said.
But, even with a milder illness, the highly transmissible Omicron variant could still overwhelm the health-care system.
It's a numbers game," he said. If you have a quarter of the risk of ending up in ICU, you just need four times the number of cases" before the hospital system is as full as it was during the Delta wave.
At the same time, Juni said trying to suppress Omicron case numbers would be futile.
It would be irrational to try to suppress this wave to close to zero, because the moment we relieve (restrictions), cases would just go up again," he said.
So the goal, he said, should be to aim to see spread like Kingston. That means acknowledging that people will transmit the virus to one another while avoiding the worst levels of exponential growth.
He points to the fact that the Kingston region seems to have experienced a sharp drop-off in contacts as a potential model to follow.
Mobility data - measurements of how much people are moving around in the community, which has been used by epidemiologists as a proxy for how much contact people are having - shows that the Kingston region reduced its contacts substantially starting in mid-December. That means fewer trips to the gym, restaurants and other people's homes.
The general pattern for Ontario also shows a drop in mobility, but it started later, around Dec. 20.
It's likely that the reduction in contacts was due to a combination of factors, including university students' in-person exams being cancelled, and public health rules imposing capacity limits in social and public settings in that region.
Ontario has also imposed a limit of 10 people at private social gatherings, and has said anyone with COVID-19 symptoms like fever or chills must isolate (five days for vaccinated people and 10 days for unvaccinated people).
Before the Omicron wave, Kingston was widely considered a leader at keeping COVID-19 at bay. Dr. Kieran Moore was the region's medical officer of health before being promoted to the top doctor job for Ontario.
Alex McKeen is a Vancouver-based reporter for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @alex_mckeen
With files from The Canadian Press