How to bet each NFL awards race ahead of 2021 season's final week
We've finally reached the last week of this turbulent NFL season, which has taught us that no team is good and anything is within reach. That includes the end-of-season awards, some of which are as unpredictable now as they were before the campaign started.
We've got you covered with the odds and best value play for each of the top awards still on the market, starting with the biggest prize of all ...
Most Valuable Player| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | -400 |
| Tom Brady | +500 |
| Joe Burrow | +1000 |
| Jonathan Taylor | +1600 |
| Cooper Kupp | +2000 |
| Josh Allen | +5000 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +5000 |
| Kyler Murray | +8000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +10000 |
| Dak Prescott | +10000 |
| Justin Herbert | +10000 |
| Derek Carr | +25000 |
| Ryan Tannehill | +25000 |
| Jalen Hurts | +5000 |
It feels like this award was decided in the public's mind three weeks ago after Tom Brady's lousy showing against the Saints, despite Aaron Rodgers posting a worse stat line in his loss to New Orleans in Week 1. Still, Rodgers has come on strong over the last six weeks, throwing for 298.5 yards per game with an 18-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio to lead the Packers to the NFC's No. 1 seed.
My money is still on Brady, who has the edge in passing yards (4,990) and touchdowns (40) and has led the Buccaneers on five game-winning drives, second-most in the league. It's also worth considering voter fatigue after Rodgers won this award in 2020 with significantly better numbers than what he'll post this season. He'll likely win this again, but I'll take my chances with the GOAT at these odds.
Value: Brady +500
Offensive Rookie of the Year| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | -225 |
| Mac Jones | +175 |
This has effectively been a two-man race since the season's opening weeks when Ja'Marr Chase set the league on fire with four touchdowns in his first three games for the Bengals, and Mac Jones proved to be the only effective rookie QB from this year's heralded class.
Really, it's a one-man race, especially after Chase's record-setting 266-yard, 3-TD performance Sunday - setting all-time rookie marks for receiving yards in a game and season (1,429). It doesn't hurt that three of Jones' worst starts of the campaign came within the last month amid a Patriots slide.
Value: Chase -225
Offensive Player of the Year| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | -110 |
| Cooper Kupp | -110 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +5000 |
| Deebo Samuel | +5000 |
A non-QB will win OPOY for the third season in a row, which is only fitting after the phenomenal campaigns we've seen from these two stars. Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 500 more yards than the next best back, and he's been the catalyst for this surging Colts team. Meanwhile, Rams receiver Cooper Kupp is 11 catches and 135 receiving yards away from matching NFL single-season records.
This will ultimately come down to value versus statistical resume. While both players have excelled in each, Taylor's case is based on how he's carried Indy to an 8-3 record over the last 11 weeks, while Kupp's candidacy is heavily rooted in his quest for the record books. This award tends to favor those with gaudy (and potentially record-breaking) numbers, which should give Kupp the edge.
Value: Kupp -110
Defensive Player of the Year| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| T.J. Watt | +150 |
| Micah Parsons | +200 |
| Aaron Donald | +750 |
| Robert Quinn | +1000 |
| Myles Garrett | +1200 |
| Trevon Diggs | +1600 |
| Nick Bosa | +5000 |
| Darius Leonard | +5000 |
| Derwin James | +10000 |
| Jalen Ramsey | +10000 |
| Chris Jones | +10000 |
| Bobby Wagner | +10000 |
| Kevin Byard | +10000 |
| J.C. Jackson | +10000 |
This was essentially a dead heat between T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett - and Trevon Diggs, to a lesser extent - for much of the year until Micah Parsons burst onto the scene a month ago as the heart of the Cowboys' dominant defense.
Can a rookie really win DPOY? We haven't seen it since Lawrence Taylor in 1981. Parsons has been stellar and is a lock to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, which could hurt the linebacker's chances to sweep the board if voters prefer to spread the wealth. Pass-rushers have won eight of the last 10 DPOY awards, and Watt's elite stat line (17.5 sacks, 31 QB hits, three forced fumbles, three recoveries) should be enough to seal the deal.
Value: Watt +150
Comeback Player of the Year| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | -140 |
| Joe Burrow | +110 |
| Nick Bosa | +6500 |
| Carson Wentz | +10000 |
The NFL's most ambiguous and unpredictable award got even crazier over the last two weeks, as Joe Burrow threw for a combined 971 yards and eight touchdowns and launched himself into the MVP discussion. Dak Prescott has been impressive in his own right, tossing seven TDs over the last two weeks. However, Burrow ranks ahead of Prescott in most passing statistics with one week to go.
So, is it about the narrative or stats? While Prescott's comeback story from a broken leg is the platonic ideal for this award, Burrow is too hot to fade here. Don't be surprised if voters use this as a way to express their appreciation for the Cincinnati passer without wasting an MVP vote.
Value: Burrow +110
| COACH | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Zac Taylor | +150 |
| Matt LaFleur | +175 |
| Mike Vrabel | +350 |
| Bill Belichick | +2000 |
| Nick Sirianni | +3500 |
| Sean McVay | +4000 |
| Kliff Kingsbury | +5000 |
| Frank Reich | +5000 |
| Mike McCarthy | +5000 |
| Sean McDermott | +5000 |
| Rich Bisaccia | +5000 |
| Brandon Staley | +8000 |
| Andy Reid | +8000 |
| Bruce Arians | +10000 |
| Sean Payton | +10000 |
| Kyle Shanahan | +10000 |
This was Bill Belichick's award to lose just three weeks ago when the Patriots were riding a seven-game win streak and owned the top spot in the AFC standings. Since then, New England has lost two of three games, while the Bengals have soared amid a three-game win streak to clinch their first AFC North title in six years.
Cincinnati finished in last place in the division for three straight campaigns following two third-place results before that, making a compelling case to bet Zac Taylor. Still, I'm hesitant to play such short odds on Taylor, Matt LaFleur, or any of these coaches with similarly impressive candidacies, especially in a market so prone to personal biases.
Call me a fool, but I'll happily take Belichick at 20-1 odds and hope voters reward the three-time winner for arguably his best coaching job yet.
Value: Belichick +2000
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.
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