NFL Week 18 teasers: Slight switch in strategy for the season's final Sunday

Stop what you're doing and tease the Washington Football Team down to -0.5.

We needed to get that out of the way because things move quickly in the final week of the NFL regular season.

In Week 18, the volatility in the point spread is apparent all over the board. Unlike in Weeks 1-17, we want to use that volatility to find an exaggerated point spread due to a "must-win" narrative and get even more value by moving the line six points further from what the spread should be. The tricky part is reading the tea leaves about who will play.

Normally, we want certainty and solid market lines to build our teasers. The closer the outcome to the original point spread, the more likely any teaser leg is to cash. If we can capture key numbers as part of that, then we have viable teaser legs.

Not all teaser legs are created equal. The biggest mistake novice bettors make is teasing through zero because they're wasting valuable price points on a number the game probably won't land on: a tie. So, how can we maximize the six-point move? How can we get what we're paying for at -270 per leg?

Let's use what might be my favorite off-the-radar game this Sunday, the meaningless matchup between Washington and the New York Giants, as an example:

The alternative spread gives you the Football Team -2.5 at -270. Would you rather that, or the -0.5 that a teaser leg provides at the same price? What about Washington -0.5 at -270 versus the moneyline of -300? That's value.

Let's look at the mathematically optimal plays available to pair or group together for Week 18:

Getting out of the 4-seed in the NFC means evading the Cardinals or Rams in the first round and not having to go to Green Bay in Round 2. So the Cowboys could use a win, especially coming off of a loss to Arizona. The Eagles just clinched a playoff spot and caught a handful of COVID-19 cases Monday. Taking Dallas down to -1 is a good start to your Week 18.

Then there's a selection of +2.5-point underdogs that can get teased up to +8.5. The Bears +8.5 seems like a good idea against a Vikings team that already seemed checked out.

The Browns were -2.5, then lost ugly to the Steelers, and then confirmed Baker Mayfield is out Sunday, and now the Bengals are -3. There's no guarantee that Joe Burrow plays, as the 4-seed in the AFC isn't the worst place to end up with the Titans poised to be No. 1. A Case Keenum-led Browns team is interesting getting 9 points in the home finale.

Teasing the Lions up to +8.5 against Green Bay in hopes that Aaron Rodgers sits the game out entirely? That's a little dicier. In fact, if Rodgers is announced as out and the line flips to the Lions as favorites, teasing Green Bay is the play.

As for the tease-down options, Washington is a no-brainer against the Giants, who are likely starting Jake Fromm and are arguably the worst team in football at the moment. The Buccaneers at -2 are a steal if Tom Brady plays. Meanwhile, the Patriots have motivation, but a decent Dolphins team is probably not getting enough respect at this number.

The Falcons have nothing to play for, while the Saints do. That's creating at least two points of line value on Atlanta. Teasing the Falcons gets the number up over 10 points, which is absolutely a good idea against Taysom Hill.

Although I was on the Cardinals last week, I don't trust them against a Seahawks group that, at the very least, has shown a willingness to finish the season strong.

Lastly, the game of the weekend on Sunday night offers another chance to tease up to +8.5. However, Brandon Staley plays a highly volatile brand of football and the Chargers already blew out the Raiders once this season, so I'd rather take Los Angeles at -2.5.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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