Hamilton has Ontario’s worst COVID rate
Hamilton has the worst COVID case rate in the province and climbing.
At the same time, leading local infectious disease physician Dr. Zain Chagla estimates that at most one in seven COVID cases are being diagnosed - potentially as few as one in 10.
It means Hamilton's 417 new cases Tuesday were a significant underestimate of the true burden of COVID in the city as testing eligibility was significantly tightened due to overwhelming demand.
Rapid and PCR tests have been difficult to get for weeks but, despite this, the daily average increase was a staggering 708 Tuesday - again, the true number estimated to be seven to 10 times higher.
Meanwhile, a Hamilton member of the COVID-19 Science Advisory Table warned of a flood" of COVID patients to hospitals.
Not sure Ontarians are fully aware of how bad things are in hospitals," Dr. Menaka Pai, who is associated with Hamilton Health Sciences (HHS) and McMaster University, tweeted Monday. Not just patients on ventilators. A flood of patients not quite sick enough for ICU ... but still sick enough to admit. And not enough beds or human beings to take care of them."
HHS and St. Joseph's Healthcare had a combined total of 717 hospital staff self-isolating Tuesday - 494 at HHS and 223 at St. Joseph's.
At the same time, they were caring for 220 COVID patients - 33 of them in the intensive care unit.
They also had 13 ongoing COVID outbreaks at the two hospital networks Tuesday involving 37 staff and 90 patient infections.
Hamilton's hospitals were already facing significant overcrowding issues before the wave of Omicron infections hit, with ambulance bays used for treatment at Juravinski Hospital during a 24-hour period that included Dec. 15 and 16.
Burlington's Joseph's Brant Hospital is also experiencing significant pressures on hospital occupancy and staffing," said CEO Eric Vandewall in a message to the community Monday.
Joseph Brant had 238 workers self-isolating Monday - 166 of them with COVID symptoms. The hospital is losing an average of 50 to 70 staff a day to self-isolation. It's on top of a 9.4 per cent staff shortage that existed before Omicron.
If you have mild COVID-19 symptoms, you do not need to come to the ED (emergency department)," stated Vandewall.
Now more than ever, please continue to follow the guidance of medical experts and public health officials," Vandewall said about new restrictions that come into force on Wednesday.
Hamilton reported 51 active outbreaks Tuesday - close to a record 53 reported on Jan 26. However, the number is likely much higher as public health announced Dec. 23 that it would stop reporting outbreaks in lower-risk areas like workplaces to focus on high-risk settings like seniors' homes, hospitals and other congregate living.
Outbreaks as of Tuesday included 21 seniors' homes and one senior services. Seven of the outbreaks were at Hamilton Health Sciences and six at St. Joseph's Healthcare. Six outbreaks were in supportive housing and group homes, while four were in shelters. Four outbreaks were in manufacturing and construction, including one at ArcelorMittal Dofasco and one at Stelco. Two outbreaks were in jails - one at the Hamilton-Wentworth Detention Centre and another at Arrell Youth Centre.
Hamilton was up to 6,649 active COVID cases Tuesday, with 2,957 of those being among residents aged 20 to 39.
When active cases hit 4,800, Chagla estimated the true number translated into six per cent to nine per cent of all city residents infected with COVID. That number would be closer to 10 per cent now.
This isn't meant to be scary - it's having impacts on health care human resources as health care workers live and work in the same communities," tweeted Chagla. But with a reproductive rate of 1.7 and a short generation time, we may be over 50 per cent soon in the next week or two."
The city's reproduction number was up to 1.84 on Tuesday.
Hamilton already has the worst COVID rate in the province, shows analysis done by epidemiologist Ahmed Al-Jaishi.
The rate of 7,804 cases per million population in the last seven days topped second place Toronto and third place York Region. Halton was fourth with 6,740.
Hamilton's rate had gone up 71 per cent in the last seven days.
Hospital staff and MDs (medical doctors) need you to minimize your contacts as much as possible, get vaccinated and boosted now, and especially help elderly and medically fragile family, friends, neighbours get boosted," tweeted Pai. Hospitals are here for you, but we need you to know what's happening within our walls."
Joanna Frketich is a health reporter at The Spectator. jfrketich@thespec.com