Hart Trophy Power Rankings: McDavid still fending off challengers

Two Hart Trophy hopefuls recently landed in COVID-19 protocol, and while Connor McDavid remains out, that shouldn't affect his candidacy unless he misses a significant amount of time.

In general, the sample size this time around is also smaller than it usually is due to a slew of postponements, so the NHL's top five MVP contenders remain largely unchanged as a result. However, some have risen, and some have fallen in the order since our last edition.

Here are our top five Hart candidates at this point:

5. Steven Stamkos Bruce Bennett / Getty Images Sport / Getty

GP	G	A	ATOI	xGF%
35	16	25	18:22	51.56

Previous rank: 5th

Stamkos continues to rank among the NHL leaders in goals and points. The Tampa Bay Lightning captain's significant contributions have helped the club remain near the top of the league standings despite playing without Nikita Kucherov for all but four games.

Brayden Point was also absent for 14 contests before returning in late December. Stamkos racked up five goals and 12 assists in 13 games Tampa Bay played with him and without its other two dynamos during that span. He isn't logging as much ice time as he used to, but Stamkos is certainly making the most of his minutes.

Stamkos is also posting favorable possession figures, and he's doing most of his damage at even strength. The veteran center, who'll turn 32 on Feb. 7, isn't a Hart front-runner, but he still warrants recognition for the value he provided with other key players out.

4. Leon Draisaitl Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

GP	G	A	ATOI	xGF%
34	26	27	22:55	49.02

Previous rank: 2nd

Draisaitl has cooled off a bit after having a bonkers November in which he averaged over a goal per game and more than two points per contest. But the prolific Edmonton Oilers pivot is still piling up big numbers that have kept him at the top of the "Rocket" Richard and Art Ross Trophy races.

The issue with Draisaitl in terms of MVP consideration is that he's been significantly less valuable than McDavid and the other Hart hopefuls by several metrics. Most notably, the Oilers have subpar possession figures when Draisaitl is on the ice without McDavid at five-on-five. Edmonton has an underwhelming 43.41 expected goals for percentage and a 43.22 scoring chances for percentage in those scenarios.

Draisaitl's analytic output is just as poor from an individual standpoint. In addition to his sub-50% xGF at five-on-five, the 2019-20 MVP has authored a 46.27 SCF%. That shows the Oilers are failing to control play when he's on the ice in non-special teams situations.

Speaking of which, Draisaitl has also benefited greatly from Edmonton's league-best power play. The 26-year-old has scored half of his goals on the man advantage, whereas McDavid only has five power-play markers, Alex Ovechkin has six, Stamkos has seven, and Auston Matthews has eight. So all of the evidence continues to support the argument that Draisaitl isn't as valuable as he might appear.

3. Auston Matthews Claus Andersen / Getty Images Sport / Getty

GP	G	A	ATOI	xGF%
29	20	14	20:34	62.17

Previous rank: N/A

It's time to acknowledge that the Toronto Maple Leafs star has been one of the NHL's most valuable players this season. The American sniper is tied for fourth in the league in goals and has five more than the next-closest Maple Leaf. He's responsible for nearly one-fifth of Toronto's scoring, which is particularly impressive considering the team's skilled collection of forwards.

Matthews hasn't set up his teammates' goals as much as some of the others on this list, but he's been superb at driving possession. The 24-year-old owns a sterling 60.8 SCF% at five-on-five to go along with his stellar xGF% in those situations. He ranks eighth and sixth in the NHL in those categories, respectively, among players who've logged at least 300 minutes at five-on-five.

Plus, his goals for percentage is nearly 10% lower than his xGF%, which indicates Toronto's already favorable share of the goals scored with Matthews on the ice could have been even higher had the club converted more chances.

2. Alex Ovechkin Scott Taetsch / Getty Images Sport / Getty

GP	G	A	ATOI	xGF%
34	24	26	22:08	51.12

Previous rank: 3rd

What Ovechkin is doing this season should not be taken for granted. The indefatigable Washington Capitals winger has been so consistently productive throughout his career that another standout campaign might be easy to overlook. But he's firmly entrenched in the Hart Trophy conversation in 2021-22.

It's not just that Ovechkin is ranked second in the NHL in goals and third in points. That's impressive considering he's 36 years old, but what's even more remarkable is that the Capitals captain is tied for the league lead in even-strength goals and leads the NHL in even-strength points by six. He's doing it the hard way at an age when most players are either on a steep decline or retired.

Ovechkin's production is commendable, but his value is what cements him as a strong Hart candidate. The Russian game-changer has amassed more than double the goals of any of his Washington teammates and has 17 more points than the next-closest Capital. Ovechkin is also averaging his highest ice time since 2008-09, which was his age-23 campaign. If not for the otherworldly talent in the No. 1 spot, he'd be the clear MVP favorite.

1. Connor McDavid Steph Chambers / Getty Images Sport / Getty

GP	G	A	ATOI	xGF%
33	19	34	22:30	57.74

Previous rank: 1st

McDavid tested positive for COVID-19 and missed Wednesday's loss to the Maple Leafs, but he remains the Hart front-runner. The Oilers have also been mired in a slump that's turned them into a borderline playoff team. But unless McDavid is ultimately out long term and Edmonton plummets out of postseason contention, he's clearly the NHL's most valuable player.

The superstar, who'll turn 25 on Thursday, can still take over a game unlike any other NHL player. He's not dominating to the extent he did when he was the unanimous MVP last season. But he leads the league in assists, is tied for the points lead, and only Draisaitl is averaging more ice time than McDavid among all forwards in 2021-22.

The Oilers are better when the reigning MVP is on the ice without Draisaitl at five-on-five than they are with both of them out there together or when Draisaitl is on without McDavid. All of these trends make it clear that McDavid's value exceeds both that of his German teammate and his other challengers this season.

(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick)

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