NFL Wild Card Weekend opening lines
As the Raiders knocked off the Chargers in the NFL's version of a fever dream Sunday, the opening lines for the six Wild Card Weekend matchups began popping up. To get decent value before markets fully take shape, you need to know what you're looking for.
In the first dozen weeks of the season, we did a weekly exercise where I listed my ratings for each team to guide us forward when betting on the spread. We ignored the early fervor over the Cardinals, slowly bought into the Cowboys, and weren't troubled by the Chiefs' early struggles. This allowed us to keep levelheaded while betting a league driven by overreaction.
The following table includes my end-of-year ratings for each playoff team and the net points assigned for home-field advantage.
| TEAM | RATING | HFA |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 76 | 1.9 |
| Buccaneers | 74 | 1.7 |
| Packers | 72 | 2 |
| Bills | 71 | 2 |
| Cowboys | 69 | 1.5 |
| Rams | 68 | 1.4 |
| 49ers | 66 | 1 |
| Patriots | 63 | 1.9 |
| Chargers | 63 | 1.3 |
| Cardinals | 60 | 1.5 |
| Bengals | 59 | 1.4 |
| Titans | 58 | 1.6 |
| Eagles | 53 | 1.6 |
| Raiders | 49 | 1.8/ |
| Steelers | 46 | 1.7 |
Let's use these ratings to look at the wild card games.
Raiders @ Bengals (-6, 48.5)This matchup never seemed all that likely, but here we are. While I've rated both teams lower than their fans might appreciate, this game masks how they'd be regarded in the market against any of the other top-five AFC teams.
My ratings have the Bengals as 4.2 points better than the Raiders at home, even though Cincinnati's home-field advantage is below average.
Patriots @ Bills (-4.5, 43.5)We could see this matchup coming one way or another. The Patriots and Bills met twice in the last six weeks, so we have a pretty good understanding of what the line should be. Buffalo was -2.5 in a windy home contest, while the rematch in New England closed near pick'em.
A closing spread of PK in Foxborough, Massachusetts, equates to Bills -4 in Buffalo. This should explain why you're getting over a field goal with the Patriots in Orchard Park. It's probably best to wait on the weather before betting this one.
Eagles @ Buccaneers (-9.5, 49.5)My numbers made the Buccaneers -7.5 at home to the Eagles, which is where this one started before it was bet up. The opening would probably be considered low compared to the Bucs' status as 7-point road favorites when they visited Philadelphia earlier this season.
Tampa Bay has fallen out of the top spot in the ratings because of injuries that it hasn't shaken all season. We'll see how the team lines up at home, especially since its vaunted run defense will be key in handling what the Eagles do best. I can't see this number going down, so if you like the Bucs, now may be the time.
49ers @ Cowboys (-3, 51)This one could be exciting for both bettors and early '90s football fans. The 49ers were listed at a bad price to win the NFC in the preseason, but they're vulnerable favorites here. My numbers have the Cowboys as favorites at just under a field goal so - barring a big move away from +3 - I'll have a ticket on San Francisco. My hope is that "America's Team" will take North America's money so I can get the hook.
Steelers @ Chiefs (-13, 47.5)Wait, what are the Steelers doing here?! Week 18 didn't disappoint from an entertainment standpoint, but we now have a rematch of a game that saw the Chiefs destroy Pittsburgh as 10-point favorites on Dec. 26.
The ratings above agree with the line from that meeting, suggesting the Chiefs are 10.3 points better at Arrowhead Stadium. There'll definitely be some value for anyone with the stomach to bet Pittsburgh, especially if we ever see +14.
Cardinals @ Rams (-4, 50)Depending on which moments you caught Sunday, these teams either looked like the best or worst versions of themselves. My ratings spit out Rams -3.6, so there isn't a ton of value unless the Cardinals take money to get this down to -3. With this starting between the key numbers of -3 and -6, we have time to decide what our move is for Monday night.
Remember: We shouldn't blindly back teams based on ratings alone. These are just starting points before diving into the on-field matchups and deciding how best to attack each contest. That said, if we can get a good price on a game that we expect will see the point spread move our way, there's nothing wrong with getting down early and asking questions later.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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