NHL Monday best bets: Kings to cook at home

What a week we had with our best bets. We posted a 6-2 record, only losing because the Penguins and Capitals blew 2-0 leads. Go figure.

We'll look for a strong start to the new week.

The Rangers are not playing good hockey right now. They've won five of the last 10 games - and that's probably overselling the quality of play we've seen.

Simply put, they're laboring at both ends of the rink. At five-on-five, they generated just 1.84 expected goals per 60 in that span. Only the Kraken - an injury-plagued expansion team - fared worse.

Things haven't been much better defensively: New York ranks 23rd in expected goals against per 60 over the last 10.

Since the team struggles to generate or prevent expected goals, it's no surprise that its share (41.18%) ranks dead last in the NHL.

The Rangers have stayed afloat mostly thanks to their goaltending. Igor Shesterkin's been a monster as usual, but he'll miss this matchup.

While Alexandar Georgiev's numbers are trending upward, Mikko Koskinen and Adin Hill are his closest competition in goals saved above expectation per start. That doesn't inspire confidence he can excel while the Rangers figure things out at five-on-five.

This is also a tough schedule spot for the Rangers, who play their third road game in five days. The Kings, meanwhile, haven't traveled since *checks notes* Dec. 19.

L.A. is rested, playing very well (fourth in xGF% over the last 10 games), and taking on a New York team missing arguably its most impactful player in Shesterkin. Even if star winger Artemi Panarin were to return, I'd still be comfortable backing the Kings.

Bet: Kings (-110)

The Bruins and Capitals are rock-solid defensive teams. While you'd probably expect their games to be rather low-scoring affairs, that hasn't been the case for a while.

Matchups between the two teams have gone over the number in seven of the last nine meetings. Those contests produced an average of 6.77 goals, with seven or more goals on five occasions.

There's a lot more than history leading me to this play, though. For one, Boston has been a scoring machine at five-on-five lately, ranking sixth in the league over the last 10 games.

I like the Bruins to stay hot against journeyman Zach Fucale. He's off to a good start in his NHL career, but he owns a sub-.900 save percentage in the AHL this season. As such, there isn't much reason to believe his strong play will continue.

The Capitals struggled to fill the net of late but I expect that to change sooner than later. They're fifth in the league in goals this season despite dealing with numerous injuries to key players like Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie - both of whom are expected back Monday.

With the firepower available on both sides, 5.5 seems too low of a total.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright (C) 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.