Wild Card Weekend betting preview: How to bet each AFC matchup

When it comes to betting markets, the NFL's 13 playoff contests are like championship games: We don't have to concern ourselves with the ebb and flow of the season, where motivation or urgency can come into question.

We have a season's worth of data, making every spread and total tight as a drum - within hours of Sunday's soft openers, the lines are bet into their appropriate place.

With so few games to choose from, it's time to get creative to find value. Let's take a look at the AFC matchups and draw up a plan of attack before we dive into the player prop market later in the week.

My ratings make the Bengals just over 4-point favorites. I'm higher on the Raiders than the market is - even though I have Las Vegas slightly below league average.

For all the excitement over the start of the Joe Burrow era, the Bengals' tendency to get down early at home is troublesome. Cincinnati started roughly and needed to battle back against the Jaguars, Browns, Chargers, 49ers, and Chiefs. They tied the game or took the lead four times and won twice. However, the request here is to win by more than a touchdown.

Few think much of the Raiders despite their wins over the Colts and Chargers to steal a playoff spot. Although Derwin James subdued Darren Waller in the latter's first game back from injury last week, expect Derek Carr to get the ball to him this time. Meanwhile, Las Vegas' pass rush will give Burrow trouble.

How to bet the game

The line moved under +6 from its +6.5 open, so I can't recommend a side. If you think there's volatility in a matchup between two franchises that haven't won a playoff game in 20 years, the Raiders at +200 on the moneyline may be interesting.

However, for a more conservative and value-oriented start to the postseason, the point spread move toward Las Vegas didn't take away any teaser value so we'll pair the Raiders with an NFC team in a 2-team teaser.

Pick: Raiders +11.5 (teaser leg)

"How's the weather?"

That's not just the first thing you ask mom in your weekly phone call. The weather's what many bettors first consider when approaching this game in Buffalo given how important it was in the Patriots' win earlier this season.

Saturday night in Orchard Park will be cold, but we won't see those same wind conditions. Even if we did, I think the Bills are better prepared and their quarterback is more suited to the cold than the public gives him credit for after Bill Belichick pulled the wool cap over Sean McDermott's eyes the first time around.

How to bet the game

No, the line isn't too high. In the teams' meeting in New England, the line closed at pick'em. Shift it two points for home-field advantage on either side, and that's why we're at -4. That doesn't make me want to fade the coaching GOAT though, it just means the line is fair.

Concerns over the weather have caused too much of an adjustment. The Bills will be able to move the ball the way they did in Foxborough, Massachusetts, while the Patriots will be able to manufacture points as they always do. A 24-20 Bills win wouldn't shock me, but both teams could have more points than that. Being able to kick field goals this time will help as well.

Pick: Over 43.5

Instead of a duel between Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes, we have to accept another awkward watch of the near-retired Ben Roethlisberger. Once we get over that, we can break this game down and find some value with the Steelers. However, at +12.5, the line is two points off where it should be (+10.5).

These two teams trend in opposite directions within a 60-minute game. The Chiefs' offense has hummed in the scripted portions of the game plan - since getting kicked around in Tennessee, their first-quarter scores are as follows:

That last game against the Broncos was 36 seconds away from a 7-0 first quarter. Meanwhile, the Steelers averaged four points in the first half of their last eight games while giving up 14.6 points.

How to bet the game

Given that first-half discrepancy and the lack of relevant numbers that the inflated Chiefs line captures, there's no reason to bet the Steelers before the game begins. Despite early struggles, Pittsburgh still won three of its last eight, while Kansas City is just 5-4 against the spread when getting those early leads. I'm taking the Chiefs early and Steelers late Sunday night.

Pick: Chiefs 1Q -3.5, Steelers in-game +14.5 or better

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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