Steelers-Chiefs player props: A Kansas City card

The biggest point spread on the board gets the NFL's high-profile time slot on Wild Card Weekend. Given the game's blowout potential, this would've been an odd choice if not for the lure of the Chiefs' offense and its modern version of Kansas City jazz.

12-bar blues

Almost a century ago, KC jazz musicians picked up the pace, ushering in the 12-bar blues structure that we know today. After seemingly struggling early in the season, Patrick Mahomes has found a way to re-invent his play and overcome adapting defenses.

Earlier this season, the secret was apparently out and NFL teams managed the Chiefs' offense with nickel-and-dime defenses and two-high safeties - until Mahomes changed his tune.

The Chiefs thrive on playing outside of the structure. However, with Tyreek Hill potentially hobbled and Travis Kelce last seen writhing on the field in Denver, Mahomes may need to be "In The Mood" to do it himself Sunday night.

The Steelers will put pressure on Mahomes - T.J. Watt matched the official sack record this season and will look to continue his run. Keeping an extra tight end to block may help KC, but it'd also mean fewer targets down the field. Moreover, any time pressure gets through, Mahomes can look to scramble.

Mahomes didn't have a rushing attempt in the teams' first meeting because he didn't need to in what was an easy win. However, Mahomes has cleared the 20-yard mark in four of his last six playoff starts.

Pick: Mahomes over 18.5 rushing yards

A TD that's definitely going to happen

The most likely candidate for the role in our sarcastic touchdown guarantee is Darrel Williams at even money. However, while he's likely the goal-line carrier, the Chiefs run plays that involve a "Kansas City Shuffle" pass to Kelce, direct snaps to their star tight end, speed end-arounds to Hill, and other seemingly extraneous methods of scoring from close.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is ruled out so, like last week, I want to find a skillful pass-catcher replacement out of the backfield who can score from distance. Jerick McKinnon flashed last week with eight touches for 50 yards and a touchdown. That was his second-most snaps played this season, and Andy Reid will make a point to get the ball in his hands.

Maybe a touchdown isn't definitely on the cards but even getting a third of the snaps at running back - and not for the purpose of blocking - is enough for me to think McKinnon may score again.

Pick: McKinnon anytime touchdown (+260)

A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does

The rule of thumb for these long-shot touchdown bets is: If you're on the field, you can score. Noah Gray was on the field for 50 snaps when Kelce missed the first game against the Steelers, but even when Kelce was available, Gray averaged 26% of the snaps.

The Chiefs may need another tight end on the field for pass protection, and while Blake Bell is the better blocker, Gray will have a chance to slip out undetected on a pass route.

Pick: Noah Gray anytime touchdown (+1800)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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