NHL Tuesday best bets: Back Capitals, Senators at home

We have a pretty full plate tonight as 16 sides will be in action.

Let's take a closer look at the best way to attack this slate.

I think the Winnipeg Jets are getting a little too much respect in this spot. They've controlled just over 48% of the expected goals over their last 10 games (at five-on-five), and their share of high-danger chances (46.83%) is even lower, sandwiching them between the Montreal Canadiens and Arizona Coyotes. That's not a great place to be.

Even with some key players in and out of the lineup, the Washington Capitals have been better. They've controlled nearly 51% of the expected goals and they rank just one spot behind the Nashville Predators in high-danger chance share.

The Capitals also have home-ice advantage, which is a nice little bonus. The Jets have won just seven of their 17 road games thus far and won't be able to get the matchups they want against Alex Ovechkin - arguably the game's best finisher.

Bet: Capitals (-135)

The Buffalo Sabres are playing truly horrendous hockey. They've won just two of their last 10 games, and frankly, those results might be generous.

At five-on-five, they've controlled 43% of the shot attempts and an unfathomable 38% of the expected goals. Put another way, opponents are generating about two expected goals for each one Buffalo creates. Abysmal.

While the Ottawa Senators aren't exactly world-beaters, they're on a different planet than this version of the Sabres. Ottawa has controlled 47.4% of the expected goals, good for 21st in the NHL during this same period of play.

The Sens are at home and fully rested, having barely played over the last month. It's a much different situation for the Sabres, who are in a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights.

I expect the Senators to take care of business with relative ease.

Bet: Senators in regulation (-120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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