Super Bowl LVI: Is there value on 1Q total after early under money?
We're just two days removed from the opening odds dropping ahead of Super Bowl LVI, and we've already seen sizable movement on the point spread and total. But there's another market that has drawn plenty of early action, creating a clear value opportunity for contrarian bettors.
The first-quarter total for this year's matchup between the Rams and Bengals opened at 9.5 at most sportsbooks - including theScore Bet, which priced the over at -130. Two days later, the odds have flipped: The under is dealing at -130 at theScore Bet, while other books offering a total of 10 have juiced the under as high as -170.
At least one shop is even offering a first-quarter total as low as 7.5 with a -110 price on either side. If recent Super Bowls are any indication, the market has swung too far in the wrong direction. Here's a look at every first-quarter result since 2010:
| YEAR | MATCHUP | 1Q RESULT | 1Q POINTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Buccaneers vs. Chiefs | 7-3 | 10 |
| 2020 | Chiefs vs. 49ers | 7-3 | 10 |
| 2019 | Patriots vs. Rams | 0-0 | 0 |
| 2018 | Eagles vs. Patriots | 9-3 | 12 |
| 2017 | Patriots vs. Falcons | 0-0 | 0 |
| 2016 | Broncos vs. Panthers | 10-0 | 10 |
| 2015 | Patriots vs. Seahawks | 0-0 | 0 |
| 2014 | Seahawks vs. Broncos | 8-0 | 8 |
| 2013 | Ravens vs. 49ers | 7-3 | 10 |
| 2012 | Giants vs. Patriots | 9-0 | 9 |
| 2011 | Packers vs. Steelers | 14-0 | 14 |
| 2010 | Saints vs. Colts | 0-10 | 10 |
The first quarter netted 10 or more points in seven of those 12 games, including three of the last four Super Bowls - that's a 58.3% hit rate despite the over dealing at even money or better at nearly every shop this year. There's even greater value for those betting over 7.5, which would have cashed in nine of the last 12 years.
The three outliers all share two things in common. For one, all of them were shutouts. That could spell another value for anyone wanting to hedge a 1Q over bet with "any scoreless quarter" - which is trading as high as +400 as of Tuesday - or a bet on the first-quarter total points to be even (-110), which has hit in 11 of the last 12 seasons.
Secondly, those three first-quarter shutouts all featured Tom Brady, whose teams have notoriously started slowly in the Super Bowl. Since his first appearance in 2002, Brady's teams have played in 10 of 20 title games. Only two of those 10 games featured at least 10 first-quarter points, while six of the 10 games without him reached that mark.
If you're worried about early-game jitters from Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow ahead of their first Super Bowl starts, history says otherwise. In the last 15 years, three Super Bowls have featured two quarterbacks making their title debut. All three saw at least 10 points in the first quarter.
So before you fire off a first-quarter under bet at a steep price, keep in mind that the narrative of low-scoring starts in the Super Bowl doesn't line up with past results. And if you still want to bet low in the first period, there are better ways to handicap it than a straight bet on the 1Q under.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.
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