Pro Bowl betting guide: Will AFC extend winning streak vs. NFC?

The Pro Bowl is back for the first time in two years after the NFL canceled last year's exhibition. This year's event takes place in Las Vegas, where the AFC (-1, 62.5) is looking to build upon a four-game winning streak over the NFC.

Here's what to know before betting this year's contest at theScore Bet:

Can AFC extend win streak?

Since the NFL returned to its AFC versus NFC format in 2016, the former has dominated this matchup, winning its fourth straight with a 38-33 victory in 2019. This year's contest profiles as more of the same.

The Pro Bowl is a passing exhibition above all else, and the NFC's aerial attack looks much different since the rosters were announced weeks ago. Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Davante Adams have all opted out, while Cooper Kupp will miss the event due to playing in the Super Bowl. Six of the team's original eight selections along the offensive line are absent as well.

The NFC has suffered the most attrition on the defensive side of the ball, too, with six of the seven opt-outs hailing from that conference. Aaron Donald and Nick Bosa are out - a key blow to the NFC's pass rush - while Jalen Ramsey, Quandre Diggs, and Bobby Wagner are gone from the team's back seven.

Many of those players were replaced by primarily run-stuffing stars, which doesn't do much good in an exhibition that has seen a 70% pass rate or higher in each of the last four seasons. Conversely, the AFC's secondary is loaded with ball-hawking stars, while Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt are easily the two best pass-rushers in Sunday's showcase.

And then there's the AFC offense, which is as stacked as ever with Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes leading the way. The latter will have two teammates at his disposal in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce - which could be the X-factor - and three of the NFL's top four rushers in Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, and Najee Harris.

It all adds up to an overwhelming advantage for the side that has already won four straight in this series. It's a wonder why the AFC isn't favored by more.

Pick: AFC -1

Will scoring return to normal?

After these two sides combined for 71 points in the latest Pro Bowl, bettors have bumped this year's total to 62.5 - a steep overcorrection from the closing total (51) in that 2019 affair. Even though the over won handily in that one, don't let a single result distract you from the greater trend of recent contests.

The Pro Bowl indeed used to be an offensive bonanza, averaging a combined 67.2 points from 2000-10 and an incredible 97.7 points from 2011-13. Then the NFL instituted a series of rule changes ahead of the 2014 contest to shorten the game and make defense more competitive - namely by allowing more diverse defensive coverages and running the clock after every incomplete pass.

In a game predicated on passing, you can imagine the results. The next six contests averaged just 48.7 combined points, but the market struggled to adjust, as all six contests went under the closing total. By 2020, the total had settled into the low 50s before a surprising scoring display in Orlando.

Now we find ourselves in a similar spot, with a total in the high 60s and a ruleset that doesn't support it. The play clock has been reduced from 40 seconds to 35 seconds this year, but the game clock still runs after every incompletion, and the NFL's new "spot and choose" rules could actually result in worse average field position for each side.

The last four Pro Bowls have seen an average of 58.4 plays per side, which would rank 31st out of 32 NFL teams in the regular season. Yes, these teams tend to be more efficient per play, but they also run fewer plays than nearly every team in the league. Is that enough to reach one of the higher totals we've seen in years? The better bet is a return to normalcy for an exhibition that has produced a combined 63 points just twice in its last seven seasons.

Pick: Under 62.5

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.

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