Super Bowl game props: From penalties to punts, 3 values to consider

We've turned the corner in the two-week gap before Super Bowl LVI, overcoming the postseason lowlight that is the middle Sunday where everyone who watches the Pro Bowl complains that the Pro Bowl exists. Mercifully, we can now turn our full attention to the Rams and Bengals.

I've broken down the general strategy for prop betting, how I think the game will go, and where there might be value in the MVP market. Before we get into how the players for each team might fair, here's a trio of game props that I'm betting for Super Bowl Sunday.

Under 9.5 accepted penalties (+100)

The first of three reasons why I think this is a bet might be the flimsiest, but hear me out. We just witnessed an entire NFL campaign where the narrative during multiple prime-time games was the officials' excessive involvement. Many of the flags thrown each season stem from one of the league office's points of emphasis, which was evident with the often infuriating taunting calls throughout the year.

For the NFL's largest showcase, I'll be willing to bet the league has mentioned a preference for having the crew working the Super Bowl stay out of the limelight. In fact, after a Wild Card Weekend that was marred by strange officiating, all six subsequent postseason matchups have had no more than ten accepted penalties, and five of those games saw eight or fewer.

This brings us to the most important point: The head referee for Sunday is Ron Torbert. The fact that Torbert isn't a frequently targeted name on social media each week is a great thing, and at 10.28 accepted penalties per game, his crew has thrown the third-fewest flags per contest. While the Super Bowl crew isn't the same one that Tolbert has worked with all campaign, I expect he will set a tone in the officials' room for how many flags we should see.

The last point is the simplest. Los Angeles (4.4) and Cincinnati (4.5) accounted for the second- and third-fewest penalties per game during the season, including the playoffs. The Rams committed two penalties against the 49ers, and the Bengals had just four infractions in Kansas City.

Team to make longest field goal: Bengals (+100)

How is this even a 50-50 proposition? Maybe we're walking into some sort of a trap, and there's no such thing as a guaranteed winner, but in our search for value, you'll be hard-pressed to find a better edge all week.

From what we've seen recently of L.A. kicker Matt Gay, he was pretty clearly nursing an injury when he came up short on a 47-yard field goal attempt in perfect conditions against the Buccaneers. The next week, he was short and off-center when asked to kick a long field goal against San Francisco.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati's Evan McPherson has been ripping long kicks each week to not just put points on the board but also keep the field position battle in the Bengals' favor.

Whether the kicks get made or not, at the very least, it seems like Cincinnati will be more interested in attempting long field goals with McPherson indoors at SoFi Stadium. The Rams, on the other hand, have to think twice about any attempts from 50+ yards.

Team to have most punts: Rams (+108)

That last point leads us to another bet. If L.A. is less willing to attempt field goals once a drive stalls between the 30- and 40-yard lines, then head coach Sean McVay will have a decision to make. For McVay, that choice often leans toward the more conservative play - in this case, a punt.

The basic probabilities stemming from the Rams being the favorite suggests that L.A. is the better squad and thus less likely to punt, which is why we see plus-money odds. However, if playing better results in a fourth-quarter lead, you'll see McVay willing to punt on the Rams' failed drives to play field position. If facing a deficit, L.A.'s drives are going to end in either a score, a turnover, or a failed fourth-down attempt.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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