Super Bowl LVI Rams passing props: How busy will Stafford be?

As we discussed in our first look at the Super Bowl LVI MVP markets, there's a wide probability gap between Matthew Stafford's MVP odds and the Rams' moneyline. This disparity is relatively unusual for a team and quarterback favored to win the big game.

That may act as a hint that the Rams can win without needing much in the way of Stafford heroics. Given the advantage their offensive line has against the Bengals' defensive line, which will be without a key piece in Larry Ogunjobi, it's a concept worth exploring in the prop markets.

Matthew Stafford under 36.5 pass attempts (-110)

Stafford is in a position that's more beneficial to his chances of winning the game than to his stat line because of his team's ground game. As much as the Rams have upgraded at quarterback this season, there's reason to believe Sean McVay would be thrilled with watching Stafford hand the ball off. After all, going back to the days of Todd Gurley, that's always how the Rams' offense has operated in peak form.

Matthew Stafford first pass completion: over 10.5 yards (+105)

Let's map out the Rams' first play:

• If it's a successful run, Stafford gets to throw his first pass in a positive game state - either on a subsequent first down, or via play-action on second- or third-and-short.
• If it's an unsuccessful run, he'll have to throw the ball down the field behind an offensive line that's capable of holding up.
• If it's an opening play pass, it'll be the first pass on McVay's game script, one the Rams have practiced in an advantageous game state that first-down passing provides.

Where this bet loses is if Stafford opts for a safe check-down pass, which doesn't seem like how you'd script the opening throw of a game with a veteran quarterback.

Number of players to complete a pass: over 2.5 (+252)

We've tried to be responsible with well-thought-out prop bets, but sometimes you have to have a little fun. Our target for this wager isn't an injury to either Burrow or Stafford, nor is it an expectation of a blowout and a John Wolford appearance. We're looking directly at Odell Beckham Jr. with this one.

Beckham completed a pass in the wild-card game to Cam Akers. He's had six pass attempts in his career. Maybe the Rams have a fun two-point conversion play a la the "Philly Special," or maybe they're willing to let Beckham let it loose again.

You can opt to bet on a third player to simply attempt a pass at +160, but how sad would it be if a non-quarterback rolled out and opted to hold the ball with the play-design not there?

Whether it's Beckham, another offensive player, or a special-teamer like Rams punter Johnny Hekker, any pass attempt from a non-quarterback will likely result in an easy completion. I'd go for the gusto and bet the pass to be completed for the extra payout. Just make sure it's a small enough bet so it won't make or break your Super Sunday.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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