NHL Wednesday best bets: Avalanche to rebound in Detroit

Our 7-1 run came to an abrupt halt Tuesday night as we lost both of our best bets.

We'll look to get back on track Wednesday as we comb through a couple of plays that stand out the most.

The Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens are both bad hockey teams. Terrible, even. They're consistently outshot and outchanced, and neither side has a reliable goaltender it can fall back on.

For me, this play falls down to talent. I believe the Sabres have more firepower than the Canadiens.

It starts with the big line up front. Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, and Jeff Skinner have been fantastic since they were put on a line together. They've controlled better than 50% of the chances and expected goals - no small feat on the Sabres - and have outscored opponents by four goals through 136 minutes of five-on-five play.

Montreal's top line had a big game last time out, but the group's underlying offensive metrics aren't as strong as its counterpart's.

I also like that Buffalo has more depth up the middle. Dylan Cozens is a promising sophomore, while Casey Mittelstadt has produced half a point per game since the beginning of last season. Those are solid outputs from your third center. The Canadiens, meanwhile, have next to nothing after Nick Suzuki.

Buffalo has a little more pop in its attack, and I expect that to be the difference.

Bet: Sabres (-110)

This Detroit Red Wings team isn't the pushover it's been in recent years. Even so, I expect the Colorado Avalanche to have their way against the Wings on Wednesday.

Coming off a blowout loss to the Boston Bruins, the Avalanche will no doubt look to respond with a strong showing in Detroit.

They have plenty of paths to do just that. For one, they're the much better five-on-five side. Colorado is 11 spots ahead of Detroit in expected goal share over the last 10 games. The Avalanche should be able to generate chances in bulk, which is problematic given the Red Wings' level of goaltending.

Projected starter Thomas Greiss owns a subpar .902 save percentage and is a negative in terms of Goals Saved Above Expected.

That spells trouble against this Colorado team, especially considering it appears poised for a huge breakout. The Avs sit 22nd in five-on-five goals over the last 10 games despite ranking inside the top five in high-danger chance generation.

Put another way, they've created dangerous opportunities in bulk; they just haven't gone in (Colorado sits 28th in shooting percentage during this spell).

The Avalanche have far too much talent to stay bottled up forever. If the chances continue to be there, the goals will follow. I expect that to be the case in this one against Greiss.

As an added bonus, Detroit has lost by at least two in five straight defeats and eight of 11 in 2022. When the Wings lose, it's generally by multiple goals.

I expect that to be the case in this one, and even more so if captain Dylan Larkin - who's questionable - is unable to play.

Bet: Avalanche -1.5 (-120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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