NHL Monday best bets: Maple Leafs to bounce back in Columbus

We are looking at a pretty quiet five-game slate to begin the week. Luckily, there is still value to be had.

Let's comb through it.

The Flames are sixth in goals scored per game, while the Oilers feature dynamic superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. It's easy to see the appeal in backing an over in this game.

I think it's the under that offers value, though.

Calgary has been a strong defensive side all season, and there's nothing beneath the hood suggesting that will change.

At five-on-five, the Flames have conceded just 48 attempts per 60 over the last 10 games. That's second in the NHL. They also rank top-five in suppressing expected goals and high-danger chances.

Here's the kicker: The Oilers are solid on defense, too. Not to the same extent as the Flames, of course, but their numbers are strong of late. They're allowing only 50 attempts per 60 minutes (fifth-best) and are above average at limiting high-danger looks.

I do think this contest will be tighter than the previous two meetings. Edmonton is a different team under Jay Woodcroft, and a lot is riding on this game. It shouldn't be a track meet.

I also like the fact Mike Smith is unavailable. Mikko Koskinen (.922 SV%) has drastically outperformed Smith (.885 SV%) over Edmonton's last 20 games and offers a better chance of limiting the damage.

Bet: Under 6.5 (-120)

It feels like the Maple Leafs have failed us numerous times in recent weeks, while the Blue Jackets continue to pull rabbits out of their hat. Despite that, we're going to run it back again and fade Columbus against the up-and-down Maple Leafs.

While the Jackets actually have more points than Toronto over the last 10, they are not playing well - particularly on the defensive side of things. Columbus is allowing nearly 63 attempts and 2.77 expected goals against per 60 of five-on-five play. They rank near the bottom of the league in both categories.

Giving up that kind of volume is far from ideal at any time, let alone when your starter is struggling. Elvis Merzlikins has managed only an .899 save percentage over his last 15 appearances and has been very mediocre against high-danger chances.

The Maple Leafs generally create quality chances at an efficient rate - and they're loaded with the firepower to convert - so that could be problematic for the Blue Jackets.

Bet: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+110)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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