NHL weekend betting guide: True moneylines for March 11-13
Beyond the frustrations of a speeding, oddly shaped rubber bullet bouncing off of a series of surfaces at a variety of angles and haphazardly finding its way into a 4-by-6 cage, hockey betting is a night-to-night roller coaster.
According to our value-based betting guide, four teams showed value as underdogs Monday. They all lost; 0-4, -4 units.
Tuesday's massive slate showed six teams worth betting on. Five of them won; 5-1, +6.45 units.
It would be easier on our blood pressure if +2.45 units over two days was a little more evenly distributed, but such is life when betting a moneyline-centric sport.
The Blackhawks (-130) were one of those winners Tuesday. The Oilers (-125) followed suit Wednesday as a rare favorite worth betting from a value standpoint.
Why is it so rare to see sportsbooks provide value on a favorite? Well, because they usually don't have to. Bettors are fine with lining up on Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals even in the second night of a back-to-back in Edmonton. They're content with getting plus-money on the plucky Ducks against the woeful Blackhawks.
As we turn our attention to the weekend, our search for value isn't defined by whether there's a plus or minus sign in front of a teams' odds. It's about how that implied probability compares to our valuations of each team.
The recipeBefore the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.
We made a small adjustment to our formula this week, moving this season's on-ice predictive metrics to 75% of our total rating. While our ratings are weighted to this season, basing 25% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to place more emphasis on team metrics without going all-in on what's happened this year. That's important because this season is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.
The cheat sheetWhat follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games I've projected to be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% for without travel.
| DATE | GAME | TRUE ML | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 11 | MIN@CBJ | -133/+133 | MIN -128/CBJ +157 |
| VGK@PIT | +136/-136 | VGK +160/PIT -130 | |
| WPG@NYI | +122/-122 | WPG +143/NYI -117 | |
| WSH@VAN | +115/-115 | WSH +136/VAN -111 | |
| March 12 | STL@NSH | +103/-103 | STL +114/NSH +107 |
| PHI@CAR | +149/-143 | PHI +177/CAR -143 | |
| ARI@BOS | +209/-209 | ARI +253/ BOS -200 | |
| CHI@OTT | -110/+110 | CHI +101/OTT +121 | |
| SEA@MTL | -117/+117 | SEA -112/MTL +138 | |
| ANA@NJD | +157/-157 | ANA +187/NJD -151 | |
| DET@CGY | +168/-168 | DET +201/CGY -161 | |
| NYR@DAL | +111/-111 | NYR +131/DAL -107 | |
| LAK@SJS | -110/+110 | LAK +100/SJS +122 | |
| TBL@EDM | +115/-115 | TBL +135/EDM -111 | |
| March 13 | CAR@PIT | +146/-146 | CAR +173/PIT -141 |
| TOR@BUF | -147/+147 | TOR -141/BUF +174 | |
| VGK@CBJ | -128/+128 | VGK -123/CBJ +151 | |
| NSH@MIN | +148/-148 | NSH +175/MIN -142 | |
| WPG@STL | +106/-106 | WPG +117/STL +105 | |
| MTL@PHI | +140/-140 | MTL +166/PHI -135 | |
| ANA@NYI | +194/-194 | ANA +233/NYI -186 | |
| CGY@COL | +148/-148 | CGY +176/COL -142 | |
| TBL@VAN | +121/-121 | TBL +143/VAN -116 | |
| FLA@LAK | -140/+140 | FLA -134/LAK +165 |
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
Copyright (C) 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.