Most spring COVID cases can be prevented with careful behaviour
COVID cases appear to be on the rise in Hamilton but are expected to remain at a manageable level."
However, public behaviour is projected to play a massive role in the size of upcoming swells in cases and hospitalizations.
Scarsin Forecasting estimates as many as 26,600 COVID cases between now and the end of May in Hamilton. However, as many as 17,500 of those infections can be prevented if residents get vaccinated and continue to practise public health measures like masking, staying home when sick, gathering outdoors and keeping the number of contacts down.
There are some early signs of an increase in cases and a potential increase in transmission," city epidemiologist Ruth Sanderson told Hamilton's board of health Monday. However there is also a good possibility that Hamiltonians can continue to keep transmission levels low if changes in our behaviour are moderate during this stage of reopening."
The average daily increase of new COVID cases fell to 56 on Feb. 23 but jumped back up to 74 by March 18 and has since been hovering around that level.
It's well above the pre-Omicron low of 13 average daily new cases in November. The difference is significant considering the general public had access to testing before Dec. 31. Now, case counts are considered to be significant underestimates.
Cases will not likely return to pre-Omicron-wave levels in the near term," said Sanderson.
In fact, hospitalizations are expected to rise again - although nowhere close to the significant strain on the health-care system at the peak of Omicron in January.
Recent decrease and plateauing of hospital admissions has likely reversed and it may result in a small swell of hospitalizations with reopening," said Sanderson. The swell is forecast to peak in mid-to-late April."
Again, public behaviour is projected to determine how hard Hamilton's hospitals are hit. Scarsin expects 200 Hamiltonians to be admitted to hospital for COVID from now until the end of May. But 140 of those hospitalizations could be avoided with vaccination and residents sticking to public health measures.
One major difference in the latest projections is that those age 20 to 59 are expected to experience a higher level of hospitalizations than those age 80 and older.
It's likely due to higher levels of protection with third- and fourth-dose vaccinations that we've been able to achieve here in Hamilton among those 80 and older as compared to those 20 to 59," said Sanderson.
Joanna Frketich is a health reporter at The Spectator. jfrketich@thespec.com