Wear a mask, pleads head of Hamilton Health Sciences
Faced with a projected swell of COVID patients this spring, Hamilton's strained hospitals are asking residents to continue wearing masks.
Together, we can lessen the severity of any spike," Rob MacIsaac, CEO of Hamilton Health Sciences (HHS), tweeted Tuesday. Reducing the number of people you see indoors, and continuing to wear a mask will ... help flatten this spike."
His plea to the public comes one day after the province dropped masking mandates in most settings, with city council reluctantly following suit and rescinding its bylaw.
It's also one day after Scarsin Forecasting estimated 70 per cent of predicted COVID hospitalizations between now and the end of May could be avoided if residents get vaccinated, wear masks, stay home when sick, limit contacts and gather outdoors.
You can have an impact," Hamilton medical officer of health Dr. Elizabeth Richardson said at a COVID briefing Monday. What you saw in the Scarsin Forecasting ... was the range of potential futures as we go forward based on the choices that people make ... You can have an influence on what that range is going to look like."
The difference caution could make this spring is significant, with Scarsin predicting two-thirds of a projected 26,600 infections could be avoided if Hamiltonians voluntarily kept up with public health measures.
Of the 30 admissions to the intensive care unit (ICU) forecast, 21 of them are potentially avoidable.
It's critical for Hamilton's hospitals to prevent as much severe illness from COVID as possible considering the pandemic has already left them with a backlog of roughly 15,000 surgeries.
It's particularly important for the public to only moderately change behaviour during reopening as the Omicron subvariant BA.2 is expected to become the dominant strain in Ontario this month. Known as Stealth Omicron," it is about 30 per cent more transmissible.
Recent modelling shows we will likely see another spike in COVID-19 hospitalizations and ICU admissions in the coming weeks," tweeted MacIsaac. The BA.2 subvariant is spreading, and we can all play a role in protecting the most vulnerable people in our community."
This week marked a significant change in the pandemic as mandates have now become recommendations.
It doesn't mean COVID-19 has ended," said Richardson. But we are in a place where we can learn to live with it and manage it for our community and our health-care system."
What has changed?
Instead of COVID rules being mandatory, they are now recommendations.
This transition from mandate to recommendation can be very challenging to people," Richardson told the board of health Monday. We're all going to all need to continue to watch what is happening."
It means that individuals are now expected to keep track of how much the virus is spreading, whether it's straining the health-care system and know the level of risk to themselves and those around them.
In the weeks and months to come, what is required of community members is changing," Richardson said at the briefing. Organizations and individuals will have to make informed risk-based decisions about how to prevent COVID-19 for themselves and our community."
She stressed that this change doesn't mean that public health measures are no longer needed.
It's not that we're saying they all should end," said Richardson. It's that we just switched from mandates to choice."
This shift is going to require respect and understanding that we are in different places from one another," said Richardson. We will need to be patient with those who make their own choices as we go forward."
What is the COVID situation?
COVID risk has significantly declined from the peak of the Omicron fifth wave from Jan. 9 to Jan. 24.
However, numbers are still well above pre-Omicron levels in November, despite testing no longer being available to the general public starting on Dec. 31. As a result, case counts are now considered to be a significant underestimate.
COVID-19 is expected to continue to circulate here in Hamilton at a manageable level," said Richardson.
In fact, there are signs of an uptick since the end of February. The per cent of tests coming back positive for COVID is at nearly 16 per cent compared to below 10 per cent last month. To compare, it was at nearly 30 per cent at the height of the Omicron wave.
The rate per 100,000 population hit 92 on March 20 compared to 68 on Feb. 22. It was at 845 at the height of the Omicron wave.
Hamilton has eight ongoing outbreaks in high-risk settings compared to Omicron's peak of 101 on Jan. 14.
The city continues to report COVID deaths, with three more on Tuesday to bring the pandemic toll to 526.
How are Hamilton's hospitals?
The city's hospitals continue to report severe overcrowding with occupancy at 114 per cent at Hamilton General Hospital and 110 per cent at Juravinski Hospital. Ideal is 85 per cent to 90 per cent.
COVID hospitalizations have been holding steady with 49 at HHS and St. Joseph's Healthcare on Tuesday, including six in the ICU. At the peak of Omicron, 309 were hospitalized.
However, the number of staff self-isolating has crept up to 292 from around 200 roughly two weeks ago. At the height of the fifth wave, it was 1,032.
Do I need to wear a mask?
Masks are still required in high-risk areas until April 27, including transit, seniors' homes, hospitals, health-care settings, shelters, jails and other congregate living. They are also required for close contacts of COVID cases and those returning from international travel.
Some organizations have decided to continue mandatory masking for longer, including the Hamilton-Wentworth District School Board. The city will require its staff to wear masks until at least the end of April.
Otherwise, wearing a mask is a choice - but it's highly recommended in public indoor spaces especially when it's crowded.
COVID isn't gone - in fact, wastewater signals show it's on the rise," Dr. Menaka Pai, a Hamilton member of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, tweeted on March 17. Mask up, especially indoors, get vaccinated ... limit your contacts."
Joanna Frketich is a health reporter at The Spectator. jfrketich@thespec.com