NHL daily betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for March 30

You don't need an elaborate study to understand that traveling on a back-to-back impacts a team's win probability in the second game. All you need is a semi-reliable rating on a team and oddsmakers will tell you how much they adjust for the scheduling spot.

In this space, a 5% downgrade in win probability is how we adjust for a team playing on the second night of a back-to-back with travel. Whether that manifests itself on a game-to-game basis is something of an unanswerable question. Players and coaches might mention its effect after a loss, but when they win a game in that same spot, there's no need for excuses.

How does travel affect a game? A logical case can be made that it's hard to get the legs going at the beginning, putting a team at a disadvantage early. It's equally logical to argue that it's the third period when players might find themselves more tired than usual.

That brings us to the Sabres-Blackhawks game in Chicago on Monday night. Based on the example from Monday's guide, Chicago was worth a bet at -163 or shorter as we gave it a 63% chance to beat Buffalo, which played in New York on Sunday.

The consensus moneyline for the Blackhawks was -150, which triggered a bet, and with a 4-0 Hawks lead early in the second period, that bet seemed safe. The Sabres could have easily chalked it up as a schedule loss. Instead, they pulled off arguably the biggest comeback of the entire season by scoring with just shy of 11 seconds left for a 6-5 win.

Since the Sabres are usually undervalued, their +130 price on the moneyline suggests it didn't account for a scheduling disadvantage. Buffalo played two previous back-to-backs in March with polar opposite results - a 1-0 win at red-hot Calgary, and a 6-1 loss to Florida on a home back-to-back.

Does the Sabres' youth make them more capable than the average team of overcoming the scheduling disadvantage? Or are the Blackhawks just that incapable? Those are some of the questions that Chicago backers never would have thought to ask 22 minutes into Monday night's game.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold. For bigger underdogs, you may decide on a higher cutoff like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected to be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager.

Wednesday, March 30

GAME	WIN PROB. (%)	TRUE ML	PRICE TO BET
WPG@BUF	50.2/49.8	-101/+101	WPG +110/BUF +111
NYR@DET	48/52	+108/-108	NYR +120/DET +102
LAK@EDM	42.5/57.5	+135/-135	LAK +160/EDM -130
VGK@SEA	52.2/47.8	-109/+109	VGK +101/SEA +121
STL@VAN	47.2/52.8	+112/-112	STL +132/VAN -108
SJS@ARI	48.6/51.4	+106/-106	SJS +117/ARI +104

Compare the "Price to bet" column with the prices offered by your various sportsbooks. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something isn't accounted for in how we've rated teams - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do not bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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