NHL daily betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for March 31
Intrepid Flames bettors got a good price in their game against the Avalanche on Tuesday night - if they got to it fast enough. The Flames opened as short favorites, but by the time the puck dropped at the Saddledome, they were as high as -145 on the moneyline.
The reason for that was simple. Nathan MacKinnon was announced as a scratch that morning, which sent the Avalanche from +100 to +125. When we take those moneylines and convert them to implied win probabilities, the Avs go from 50% to win the game to 44.4%.
Instantly, we know how the market values one of the best players in the game - the Avalanche are deemed 5.6% less likely to win when MacKinnon is out. Whether you believe that's too high or low is up to you as a bettor, as you decide which side to back.
You might think 5.6% is an insult to a player of MacKinnon's stature. I might suggest that it's a compliment to the depth of Colorado, that missing a top-five player in the league would only hurt its chances of winning by less than 6%. Losing someone like MacKinnon for a game would matter more to a team that wasn't capable of making up for his absence.
The Avalanche were 12-3 (80%) on the moneyline in 15 games without MacKinnon before Tuesday night's contest in Calgary. Meanwhile, they are 34-17 with him - a 66% win rate. No one is suggesting that the Avalanche are better without MacKinnon. It's a small sample size that's causing high variance. However, looking at it this way allows us to understand that a 5% adjustment is appropriate.
As far as one game goes, the Avs overcame the absence for a tight 2-1 win. That shouldn't change how the market views Colorado, but we'll need to be on our toes about whether MacKinnon plays against the Sharks on Thursday. At least we know now what to expect from a line adjustment if he doesn't.
The recipeBefore the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.
This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.
I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.
How to use the guideWhat follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold. For bigger underdogs, you may decide on a higher cutoff like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected to be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager.
Thursday, March 31| GAME | WIN PROB. (%) | TRUE ML | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTL@CAR | 37/63 | +170/-170 | MTL +203/CAR -163 |
| NJD@BOS | 40.8/59.2 | +145/-145 | NJD +172/BOS -139 |
| CHI@FLA | 35/65 | +186/-186 | CHI +223/FLA -178 |
| CBJ@NYI | 41/59 | +144/-144 | CBJ +170/NYI -138 |
| WPG@TOR | 37/63 | +170/-170 | WPG +203/TOR -163 |
| PIT@MIN | 47/53 | +113/-113 | PIT +132/MIN -108 |
| SJS@COL | 31.9/68.1 | +213/-213 | SJS +258/COL -204 |
| LAK@CGY | 38.5/61.5 | +160/-160 | LAK +190/CGY -153 |
| DAL@ANA | 53.6/46.4 | -115/+115 | DAL -111/ANA +136 |
Compare the "Price to bet" column with the prices offered by your various sportsbooks. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something isn't accounted for in how we've rated teams - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do not bet" list.
After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
Copyright (C) 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.