NFC futures betting: Using season win-total markets to build your ratings
If your head is spinning from the NFL news cycle, you're not alone. The dust has settled and we have more insight into the 2022 season, but are we really dying to get down on a win total priced at -110 that won't be paid out until January 2023?
We're still waiting to see where impact players will be drafted and what the schedule will look like, but that hasn't stopped oddsmakers from posting season win totals for almost every team.
NFL season win totals| TEAM | WIN TOTAL | OVER PRICE |
|---|---|---|
| Bills | 11.5 | -150 |
| Buccaneers | 11.5 | +108 |
| Packers | 11 | -114 |
| Chiefs | 10.5 | -167 |
| Cowboys | 10.5 | -104 |
| Rams | 10.5 | +101 |
| 49ers | 10 | -134 |
| Chargers | 10 | -114 |
| Broncos | 10 | -114 |
| Bengals | 10 | +111 |
| Cardinals | 9.5 | -162 |
| Ravens | 9.5 | -143 |
| Colts | 9.5 | -125 |
| Titans | 9.5 | -114 |
| Vikings | 9 | -114 |
| Dolphins | 9 | +104 |
| Patriots | 9 | +116 |
| Eagles | 8.5 | -134 |
| Raiders | 8.5 | -114 |
| Saints | 8 | +116 |
| Steelers | 7.5 | -121 |
| Commanders | 7.5 | +104 |
| Giants | 7 | -134 |
| Bears | 7 | -104 |
| Jaguars | 6.5 | -114 |
| Seahawks | 6 | -130 |
| Panthers | 6 | -114 |
| Lions | 6 | -104 |
| Falcons | 5.5 | +101 |
| Jets | 5.5 | +111 |
| Texans | 4.5 | -114 |
(The Browns aren't listed due to the uncertainty around a potential suspension for Deshaun Watson.)
How to create initial ratings from win totalsIn the AFC edition, we translated these win totals into point spreads and moneylines between the Bills at the top, the midlevel Raiders, and the cellar-dwelling Texans.
Now we'll take the numbers in the chart above and turn them into a rating-system starter kit with projected win percentages for the NFC teams.
| TEAM | WIN TOTAL | PROJ. WIN% |
|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 11.5 | .664 |
| Packers | 11 | .653 |
| Cowboys | 10.5 | .617 |
| Rams | 10.5 | .611 |
| 49ers | 10 | .603 |
| Cardinals | 9.5 | .588 |
| Vikings | 9 | .535 |
| Eagles | 8.5 | .517 |
| Saints | 8 | .482 |
| Commanders | 7.5 | .436 |
| Giants | 7 | .434 |
| Bears | 7 | .411 |
| Seahawks | 6 | .370 |
| Panthers | 6 | .355 |
| Lions | 6 | .353 |
| Falcons | 5.5 | .323 |
As we know from the AFC edition, a projected win percentage of 60.3% indicates how likely the 49ers are to beat an average team, but what about an opponent above that 50% mark? That's where things get trickier. Let's project a San Francisco matchup with the division-rival Cardinals.
There's a 1.5% difference between the two teams, meaning that the 49ers have a 50.75% win probability to the Cardinals' 49.25%.
Here's the formula to determine the 49ers' 50.75% win probability:
- (1- (49ers' rating - Cardinals' rating) / 2) + (49ers' rating - Cardinals' rating)
- (1-(.603-.588) / 2 ) + (0.015)
- .4925 + .015 = .5075
The coin-flip nature of this hypothetical neutral-site game produces a true moneyline split of SF -103 / ARI +103. Here's how the odds for that game might look after a sportsbook accounts for the straddle:
| GAME | SPREAD | PRICE |
|---|---|---|
| 49ers | PK | -113 |
| Cardinals | PK | -107 |
That's a relatively simple example - the 49ers and Cardinals are both wild-card teams that would have been widely rated as near equals.
Let's use another divisional rivalry, this time between a good team and a team that's presumably bad - the Cowboys and the Giants.
According to the win-total markets, the difference between Dallas and New York is 18.3% of win probability. Applying our formula, the Cowboys would win a neutral-site game 59.2% of the time this season.
That would suggest a true moneyline split of DAL -145/ NYG +145. Here's how the odds for that game might look after a sportsbook accounts for the straddle:
| GAME | MONEYLINE | SPREAD |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | -160 | -3.5 |
| Giants | +140 | +3.5 |
Whether you look at the win total or how the teams are depicted in a matchup, these two clubs are rated as closely as they have been in a few years, likely because of the Giants' coaching change and the Cowboys' salary-cap crunch.
This is a great example of how this exercise can let you work backward to illuminate how you feel about a team. If you like the Cardinals to win a coin-flip game with San Francisco, that's a clue that you might want to bet the over on their season win total. If you think the Giants are getting too much credit this offseason, you can fade their win total now or wait to bet against them during the season.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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