What experts say lies ahead for Vladimir Putin — the man Joe Biden says ‘cannot remain in power’

To listen to the White House, it was an existential afterthought tacked on to the end of a presidential speech.

U.S. President Joe Biden, speaking in Poland a week ago, gave voice to what the western world was thinking.

For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power."

This man," meaning Russian President Vladimir Putin - someone Biden has also referred to as a killer," butcher" and war criminal."

While the plain-talking president from Scranton, Pa., may have captured the western zeitgeist, the utterance has been seen as more hindrance than help - conjuring up the doomed notion of regime change" while Ukrainian negotiators are bargaining over ceasefire and withdrawal terms with their Russian counterparts.

Few see Russia shedding its pariah status so long as Putin remains in power, but his exit from the Kremlin Palace - to the dock of the International Criminal Court or, perhaps, into exile-seem equally unlikely, at least without radical changes to the status quo.

There's this real tension between what we might want to happen and what actually happens when we threaten to prosecute brutal leaders like Putin," says Daniel Krcmaric, associate professor of political science at Northwestern University.

Stability and the appearance of strategic cunning have been key to Putin's success and longevity at the head of the Russian state. The economic chaos of the post-Soviet 1990s was replaced by a sort of meagre stability that endured until the invasion of Ukraine. The Russian masses have had little chance of becoming rich - particularly those outside of the big cities - but neither have they starved.

And Russian spirits have been nourished on a program of historical nostalgia as Putin sought to rebuild the force, pride and global influence the country held in Soviet times.

But it is now nearly impossible to gauge domestic support for Putin or for the war in Ukraine, or to determine how its planning and execution, and the resulting western economic sanctions, are playing out in Russia.

All of Russia's independent media have either been shut down or left the country for fear of prosecution under a law that criminalizes fake" news and criticism of the Russian army.

Levada Center, a Russian polling firm, released survey results this week showing 81 per cent support for the war and just 14 per cent opposition.

But those results can't be trusted, because those opposing the government in Russia risk a run-in with the law, said Vladimir Osheskin, a human-rights advocate who has uncovered shocking cases of abuse and torture in Russian prisons.

In Russia, you can be arrested for a month or three months and in that time you can have your teeth broken, you can be raped and you can even be killed," he told the Star.

People - the majority of whom sit at home silently - are against the war, but they won't go into the streets to protest because they are terrified of the repression and the physical and psychological torture."

Over the past month, Osheskin began publishing a series of letters he claims to have received from a source inside Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB). The letters blame the shocking performance of the Russian military in Ukraine on intelligence reports that were penned to please superior officers and the Kremlin rather than to objectively assess a war no one believed would occur.

This viewpoint coincides with claims that, according to Sir Jeremy Fleming, the head of GCHQ, Britain's signals intelligence agency, Putin military advisers are afraid to tell him the truth.

He underestimated the strength of the coalition his actions would galvanize. He underplayed the economic consequences of the sanctions regime. He overestimated the ability of his military to secure rapid victory," Fleming said in a speech this week.

What's going on and the extent of these misjudgements must be crystal clear to the regime."

This realization and its repercussions could also be a demoralizing factor for the security forces that help secure Putin's position.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Danilov has claimed that eight Russian generals were fired last month over the poor military performance. Additionally independent media outlet Meduza reported an FSB chief and his deputy were placed under house arrest, in part for their botched handling of the pre-war intelligence effort.

In addition, at least half a dozen high-ranking military commander have been killed in battle.

But it still seems a longshot - at this stage, at least - that the military or security services would rise up against their patron and commander-in-chief, according to Adam Casey, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Michigan.

Writing in Foreign Policy magazine, Casey explained how Putin has fragmented the Russian security apparatus and military over the years, pitting one against the other, having them inform on one another, forcing them to compete for the president's good graces while fearing a fall into disfavour.

Even if everyone in Putin's inner circles wished to get rid of him, the consequences of failed action and the difficulties of coordinating a move against him under the watchful gaze of multiple security services render any coup unlikely," he concluded.

The prospect of Putin facing international justice seems equally slim.

The International Criminal Court has opened a formal investigation into events in Ukraine dating back to 2013, with its chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, noting: I am satisfied that there is reasonable basis to believe that both alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed in Ukraine."

The investigation will include the events that have occurred since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion.

But Russia pulled its signature from the Rome Statute, the agreement underpinning the working of the ICC, in 2016, meaning that the court has no jurisdiction on Russian officials or on Russian territory.

And the possibility of Putin being formally accused of war crimes, crimes against humanity, the crime of aggression or genocide - the four crimes prosecuted at the ICC - only heightens the likelihood of Putin trying to remain in power.

If you're the sort of leader who has presided over terrible crimes, what is the best thing you can do to make sure that you're not prosecuted? It's to remain in power," said Krcmaric, the political science professor, who studies conflict, crime, leadership and exile.

The prospect of Putin seeking exile is far-fetched for a number of reasons, he said. First, the leaders of major world powers armed with nuclear weapons are usually the ones offering political refuge rather than seeking it. Second, the exiled leader needs to place their fate completely in the hands of another.

Everything we know about Putin in particular suggests he would have a hard time putting his fate into someone else's hands entirely," Krcmaric said.

With the imposition of crushing sanctions and global isolation, the West is doing all in its power to weaken Putin's grip on the country, while avoiding rogue calls such as that of U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham who explicitly called last month for Putin's fate to be sealed in a deadly coup.

The only people who can fix this are the Russian people," Graham told Fox News in early March. Easy to say, hard to do. Unless you want to live in darkness for the rest of your life, be isolated from the rest of the world in abject poverty ... you need to step up to the plate."

Osheskin, the Russian prison-rights advocate, said the war in Ukraine has brought his own country to a crossroads.

The first path is that Vladimir Putin will continue to rule alone and will turn Russia into a fascist state before our eyes," he said, pointing to the shuttering of social networks, internet sites and media outlets.

The second path is that which will happen to stop Vladimir Putin."