NHL Monday best bets: Blues to get early jump on Coyotes

We have just four games on the docket for Monday night. Luckily, there's still value to be had.

Let's dive into a couple of my favorite plays as we look to get the week started on a high note.

The Blues are coming off an impressive road victory over the Flames. They should have no problem picking up where they left off at home against the bottom-feeding Coyotes.

Arizona is playing absolutely dreadful hockey right now. Over the last 10 games, they've controlled just 38.42% of the expected goals and been out-chanced 285-192 at five-on-five. Opponents are walking all over them.

I expect the Blues to get an early jump in this game. They've been a potent first-period team this season, netting 63 goals thus far. That's more than the Hurricanes, Penguins, and Rangers, to name a few.

On the flip side, Arizona has routinely gotten off to disastrous starts. The Coyotes have conceded 69 goals in the opening frame; only four teams have allowed more.

Now they find themselves in the latter half of a road back-to-back against a good team, and they'll have Ivan Prosvetov between the pipes. He has posted a save percentage well below .900 in back-to-back AHL seasons. With numbers like that in the AHL, it's hard to imagine him finding success at the NHL level.

I expect the Blues to jump all over a bad, fatigued team by getting an early lead. Backing St. Louis to win the opening frame is where I see the most value.

Bet: Blues first period -0.5 (-115)

The Maple Leafs are in a very good spot heading into this game. They've won four consecutive contests - all by at least two goals - and beat up on stiff competition in that time, including the Bruins and Panthers.

The underlying numbers suggest their 7-3 run is well deserved. They've controlled 56.41% of the expected goals at five-on-five during this spell. That places them sixth in the NHL - ahead of the Penguins, Avalanche, and, yes, Lightning.

For all the talk about Toronto's "defensive issues," it's the defensive play that's been most impressive. The Leafs have given up just 2.22 expected goals per 60 over the last 10 games, good for third place.

If their goaltending had been a little better, we're likely talking about a team that has won eight or nine of the last 10 - and deservedly so.

Given the way Toronto is dominating at full strength and the fact that Tampa Bay is playing its third game in four nights, I think the Leafs will win the five-on-five play.

While goaltending is the great equalizer, and the Lightning certainly have the better starter, it's worth noting Andrei Vasilevskiy has struggled a bit over the last couple of months.

He has appeared in 16 of Tampa Bay's last 20 games, posting a .911 save percentage overall and .793 versus high-danger shots. The former ties him with Martin Jones, while the latter matches Craig Anderson. Not what you'd expect.

Vasilevskiy is absolutely capable of stealing games on any given night, but his recent play makes me skeptical he'll do so against a scorching hot Maple Leafs side.

Bet: Maple Leafs (+115)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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