NHL Tuesday best bets: Stars to cool red-hot Islanders

We turned a slight profit Monday night. While the St. Louis Blues didn't win the first period - naturally, they scored four in the second - the Toronto Maple Leafs came through for us as +115 underdogs.

We'll aim for better as we dig into our best bets for Tuesday's massive NHL slate.

The New York Islanders have won four in a row and are on an impressive 7-3-0 run. Don't let that fool you, though. They're not playing as well as their recent results would have you believe - not even close. Without much high-end talent, the Islanders won't keep their good run going forever.

At five-on-five, they've controlled 43.42% of the shot attempts (28th) and 42.12% of the expected goals (29th). That groups them with the Philadelphia Flyers, Chicago Blackhawks, Montreal Canadiens, and Arizona Coyotes - not where you want to be.

The Dallas Stars own the same 7-3-0 record but have a much better underlying process. They're above 50% in shot share and expected goals share while crushing opponents in high-danger chances, sitting at nearly 57% (seventh).

Dallas has been fantastic at home this season, posting a 21-9-1 record. It's in much better form than the Islanders - despite matching records over the last 10 - and also has a clear advantage when it comes to talent level.

Back the Stars to rebound at home.

Bet: Stars (-130)

The Minnesota Wild are an excellent team playing at an extremely high level right now. Even so, I think the value lies with the Nashville Predators.

They've been a fantastic home side this season, winning 66% of their games while also looking quite strong under the hood.

Nashville dominates teams at five-on-five, controlling nearly 57% of the high-danger chances. That's the seventh-highest home total in the league, placing it ahead of teams like the Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, and Maple Leafs. Pretty good.

Combine a consistent edge in chances with top-tier goaltending from Juuse Saros, and it's no coincidence the Predators have won so frequently in Nashville.

It's also worth noting the Predators have beaten the Wild in Minnesota twice already this season by an 11-4 aggregate score. Across all situations, Nashville controlled 62% and 70% of the expected goals. Utter dominance.

I don't think the Predators are getting as much respect as they deserve in this spot.

Bet: Predators (-110)

I know, I know. It's always terrifying betting unders in games involving a team with as much firepower as the Colorado Avalanche. That's where there's value, though, so we're going to plug and play.

A quick glance at this matchup would have you thinking about all the dynamic offensive players involved but, in reality, it's the teams' defenses that are most potent right now.

The Pittsburgh Penguins have given up 2.23 expected goals per 60 at five-on-five over the last 10 games. That ties them for fourth place in the NHL with ... the Avalanche!

Neither team is allowing much, and both can rely on their netminders to clean up mistakes when necessary.

Darcy Kuemper is hotter than anybody in the league. He's appeared in 18 games since the beginning of February, posting a ridiculous .940 save percentage. He also has an .899 save percentage against Grade A chances, which slots him top in the NHL.

Tristan Jarry can't touch those numbers but should be able to hold his own, as he showed when these teams met just a few days ago. He owns a .914 save percentage since Feb. 1 and sits eighth in goals saved above expected this season.

There'll be goals in this game but, as was the case in Colorado, I think it goes under the number.

Bet: Under 6.5 (-110)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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