NHL daily betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for April 7
Every team has its price - whether it's to bet on or against. That said, you're going to have to make a very convincing argument to get me to fade the Florida Panthers.
Maybe that argument is that they've found themselves facing seemingly insurmountable deficits twice in the last week. Unfortunately for anyone brave enough to step in front of the Cats' wagon, they surmounted both. Down 6-2 in New Jersey through two periods, the Panthers scored four times in the third frame to force overtime and an eventual 7-6 win. Then on Tuesday night, they came back from 5-1 down to beat the Maple Leafs in overtime.
It's the highest compliment to the Panthers that - when down by four goals to a team as good as Toronto - they were deemed to have as high as a 5% win probability in some metrics. Florida's proven that you'll need to watch all 60 minutes (or more) of its games, as no deficit is safe for its opponents.
The recipeBefore the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.
This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.
I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.
How to use the guideWhat follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.
Thursday, April 7| GAME | WIN PROB.(%) | TRUE ML | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@CBJ | 46.2/53.8 | +117/-117 | PHI +137/CBJ -112 |
| PIT@NYR | 48.6/51.4 | +106/-106 | PIT +117/NYR +105 |
| NSH@OTT | 52.5/47.5 | -110/+110 | NSH -106/OTT +130 |
| MTL@NJD | 38.5/61.5 | +160/-160 | MTL +190/NJD -153 |
| BUF@CAR | 35.4/64.6 | +183/-183 | BUF +218/CAR -175 |
| SEA@CHI | 45.2/54.8 | +121/-121 | SEA +143/CHI -116 |
| TOR@DAL | 47.7/52.3 | +110/-110 | TOR +129/DAL -105 |
| VAN@ARI | 44.7/55.3 | +124/-124 | VAN +145/ARI -119 |
| CGY@SJS | 51.2/48.8 | -105/+105 | CGY +105/ SJS +116 |
| EDM@LAK | 49/51 | +104/-104 | EDM +115/LAK +106 |
Compare the "Price to bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something is unaccounted for in our team ratings - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do not bet" list.
After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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