NHL Wednesday best bets: No fireworks as Lightning visit Capitals
Tuesday was a great night on the ice. Two of our three team bets came through while all three shot totals hit. In total, we went 5-1.
While there aren't any sides that stand out Wednesday night - at least before injury or goaltending news - I see value in a total and two props. Let's dive in.
Lightning (-140) @ Capitals (+115)The Lightning and Capitals enter this game in a similar place. Both are coming off two defeats, including four-goal losses at home. They'll no doubt be looking to tighten up and get back on track as they jockey for position in the Eastern Conference playoff race.
Despite all the firepower in this matchup, there's plenty of value on the under.
Washington has struggled to keep the puck out of the net over the last few games. That's not because of defensive issues, though. The Capitals have actually done a great job of suppressing chances for quite some time.
At five-on-five, only the Wild and Rangers have allowed high-danger chances at a lower rate than Washington over the last 10 games. The Capitals are keeping opponents away from the blue paint.
That's something the Lightning have excelled at all season long. While they haven't been as competent of late, the Bolts sit seventh in high-danger chances against per 60 minutes. The Capitals aren't far behind, placing 10th.
With both teams coming off embarrassing defeats, the coaches will likely be preaching the importance of tightening up. And each side has the ability to lock things down. We've seen that firsthand in their meetings this season.
The Lightning and Capitals have faced each other twice, combining for three goals in one game and five goals in the other. The low totals weren't due to stellar goaltending, either. The first meeting featured only 3.33 expected goals at five-on-five, while the second featured 2.89 expected goals. Simply put, there was nothing there in terms of chance volume.
Bet: Under 6.5 (-125)
Trevor Zegras over 2.5 shots (-112)Zegras is cooking, especially on home ice. He's registered at least three shots on goal in six of his last eight games in Anaheim.
The Flames are a strong shot-suppression team, but there's plenty of reason to believe Zegras can stay hot in this game. He's hit the over in two of the Ducks' three meetings with Calgary thus far, falling one shot shy in the lone exception.
The Flames have also given up plenty of volume to centers of late. They've allowed 10.90 shots per game to centers since the beginning of March, good for 24th in the NHL. They don't rank bottom 10 in shot suppression against any other position during that period.
With Zegras averaging 5.7 shot attempts over the last 10 games compared to 4.5 for the season, it seems like a good time to jump on the train.
Jack Eichel over 3.5 shots (-112)Eichel is one of the hottest shot generators in the NHL. He's been almost automatic of late, recording four shots or more in eight of his last 10 games, including his last outing against the Canucks.
With Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, and many other key players out of the Golden Knights' lineup, Eichel is being asked to carry the load at even strength and on the power play. He's Vegas' best scoring threat, and the team is using him accordingly.
So long as the shot attempts continue - Eichel has averaged 6.2 during this hot streak - one almost has to back him each night at anything close to even money.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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