Norris Trophy Power Rankings: Josi climbs the charts with historic pace
Welcome to the sixth edition of theScore's Norris Trophy Power Rankings.
These rankings focus on analytics and the all-around ability of defensemen rather than just points or reputation.
- xGF% = the share of expected goals a team produces while a player is on the ice at five-on-five
Jared Silber / National Hockey League / Getty| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 10 | 57 | 24:04 | 49.9 |
Previous rank: 5th
Fox is not going to win the Norris for a second straight season, but he's still enjoying another stellar campaign. His sub-50 xGF% may seem like a red flag, but that's partially due to his surroundings, as the New York Rangers are routinely outplayed at five-on-five. His xGF% is the best among New York blue-liners and third among the team's skaters. Fox is going to need a miracle final month to get into the top three, though.
4. Charlie McAvoy, Bruins
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 8 | 42 | 24:37 | 61.5 |
Previous rank: N/A
The acquisition of Hampus Lindholm from the Anaheim Ducks has worked wonders for McAvoy, who's registered 10 assists in seven games since the Swede joined. When the pair are on the ice together at five-on-five, the Boston Bruins have outscored opponents 8-3 with a 64.8 xGF%.
For the naysayers who believe these superb underlying numbers are due to sharing the ice with Patrice Bergeron, the Lindholm-McAvoy pairing has outscored opponents 5-2 with a 64.9 xGF% without Bergeron.
McAvoy previously had a revolving door of partners, including Matt Grzelcyk, Mike Reilly, and Derek Forbort. Now, with an established, rock-solid partner in his prime, it's clear McAvoy has unlocked another level to his game.
3. Victor Hedman, Lightning
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 19 | 48 | 25:20 | 56.3 |
Previous rank: 2nd
Hedman's fall on this list is through no fault of his own. He's still having an impeccable season - arguably his best - and has even registered eight goals and eight assists in 18 games since the last edition of these rankings.
The 31-year-old future Hall of Famer is still arguably the best defenseman on the planet - especially come playoff time - but he's only third-best as far as results this season go.
2. Roman Josi, Predators
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 19 | 65 | 25:17 | 52.0 |
Previous rank: 4th
Josi is on an utterly ridiculous run. The 2020 Norris winner tallied 29 points in 15 games since the last edition of these rankings and is on pace for 100 points - which is flat-out unheard of in today's game. The only defensemen in NHL history to reach triple digits in points are Bobby Orr (six times), Paul Coffey (five times), Denis Potvin, Al MacInnis, and Brian Leetch. Leetch, in 1991-92, was the last to accomplish the feat.
Now, given the historical company he's in, how could Josi not be No. 1 on this list? Well, it wasn't an easy choice, but the man ahead of him is also enjoying a historically great season while posting better all-around two-way metrics.
Remember, this trophy is awarded to the defenseman "who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position." Josi is by no means a defensive liability, but having a crazy amount of points doesn't make him the all-around best defenseman.
Now, if the Norris took the definition of the Hart Trophy as "the player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team," this would be a different story, since the Nashville Predators would probably be a lottery team without Josi. While Josi should absolutely be receiving some Hart Trophy love, there's still one player who has a slight edge when it comes to the Norris.
1. Cale Makar, Avalanche
Michael Martin / National Hockey League / Getty| GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 24 | 51 | 25:39 | 57.1 |
Previous rank: 1st
Makar is no slouch offensively and is on pace for 28 goals and 89 points. If he can get hot down the stretch and reach 30 goals, he'd be the third defenseman to do so in the past 30 years, joining Kevin Hatcher (1992-93) and Mike Green (2008-09).
But where Makar separates himself from Josi is in the underlying metrics. Makar leads all NHL defensemen in goals above replacement and expected goals above replacement. He's also superior to Josi in virtually every defensive metric, as well as takeaway/giveaway ratio and penalty differential. Plus, he's done this while playing against stiffer competition than Josi.
Josi is certainly more valuable to the Predators than Makar is to the Presidents' Trophy-contending Colorado Avalanche, but as far as the best all-around defenseman this season goes, that title currently belongs to Makar.
Honorable mentions: Aaron Ekblad (injured), Miro Heiskanen, Kris Letang
(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)
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