NHL weekend betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for April 9-11

Matt Russell

from on 2022-04-08 16:52 (#5XZP8)

After what'll be a busy weekend in the NHL, we'll have an opportunity to evaluate how our bets do Monday, with just one game on the slate. Most astute bettors track their wins and losses to see how they do over the long term, which isn't the same as evaluating bets.

The two Canadian franchises in the Original Six went on the road Thursday night and found victory, albeit in different ways.

The Toronto Maple Leafs went to Dallas and outshot the Stars 41-18. Social media buzzed about Auston Matthews having more shots on goal than the entire Dallas team at one point. The Stars forced overtime, which Matthews won during three-on-three play. If you didn't know any better - or if you still swear by 1990s "metrics" - you'd think the Leafs dominated and should have won handily.

An evaluation of the advanced metrics suggests that their narrow win was a fairer result based on expected goals.

	SCORING CHANCES	XG 5-ON-5	TOTAL XG
Maple Leafs	27	1.38	2.64
Stars	20	1.4	1.76

Meanwhile, the Montreal Canadiens went to New Jersey and racked up a season-high seven goals in a 7-4 win. Regardless of whether you look at the old-school shots-on-goal tally or peek into the advanced metrics, the play on the ice suggests a different story.

	SCORING CHANCES	XG 5-ON-5	TOTAL XG
Canadiens	26	1.82	1.82
Devils	37	2.43	3.09

Aside from a few goaltenders having career years, there isn't much separating most goalies on a game-to-game basis. Juuse Saros is seventh in the NHL with a save percentage of 92.07. Jake Allen is 29th with 90.6%. That 1.47% gap equates to less than half a goal per game.

Andrew Hammond got his second start for the Devils - against the team that gave him his first start in three years earlier this season. He's 98th in save percentage this season out of 107 goaltenders who've seen the crease.

The Devils' skaters and bettors deserved better, but when a team starts a goaltender who isn't NHL quality, this type of thing can happen. Coincidentally, the New Jersey heads to Dallas on Saturday. Who the Devils have between the pipes will matter more than usual.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

DATE	GAME	PROJ. ML (%)	TRUE ML	PRICE TO BET
April 9	NJD@DAL	42.2/57.8	+137/-137	NJD +162/DAL -131
	WSH@PIT	45/55	+122/-122	WSH +144/PIT -117
	FLA@NSH	48.7/51.3	+106/-106	FLA +117/NSH +105
	OTT@NYR	38.5/61.5	+160/-160	OTT +190/NYR -153
	MTL@TOR	35.3/64.7	+183/-183	MTL +219/TOR -175
	CGY@SEA	56.6/43.4	-130/+130	CGY -125/SEA +154
	CBJ@DET	47.2/52.8	+112/-112	CBJ +132/DET -108
	ANA@PHI	46/54	+118/-118	ANA +138/PHI -113
	NYI@STL	43.1/56.9	+132/-132	NYI +156/STL -127
	SJS@VAN	41.2/58.8	+143/-143	SJS +169/VAN -137
	COL@EDM	44/56	+127/-127	COL +150/EDM -122
	ARI@VGK	37.5/62.5	+167/-167	ARI +199/VGK -160
April 10	BOS@WSH	57.8/42.2	-137/+137	BOS -132/WSH +162
	NSH@PIT	42.9/57/.1	+133/-133	NSH +157/PIT -128
	LAK@MIN	45.4/54.6	+120/-120	LAK +142/MIN -116
	BUF@TBL	33.8/66.2	+196/-196	BUF +236/TBL -187
	ANA@CAR	34.6/65.4	+189/-189	ANA +227/CAR -181
	DAL@CHI	50.9/49.1	-103/+103	DAL +107/CHI +114
	WPG@OTT	54.5/45.5	-120/+120	WPG -115/OTT +141
April 11	WPG@MTL	50/50	+100/+100	WPG +110/MTL +110

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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