Like it or not, another pandemic election looms in Hamilton

It was at a campaign-style announcement in Hamilton that Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford memorably declared it was time to move on from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Like, we are done with it. Let's start moving on cautiously," Ford said at ArcelorMittal Dofasco after announcing $500 million for green steel" at the end of February. Six weeks later, vaccine passports and mandatory masks in most places are gone and Ontario's unofficial election campaign is well underway.

But mandatory masks or not, it is looking like another pandemic-focused election campaign ahead of the June 2 vote.

That's partly because voters will judge the provincial government on its pandemic record - but also, because of a sixth wave of variant-fuelled infection that now includes an estimated 120,000 new COVID cases a day.

By the time we vote, if people think Ford did a good job on (the pandemic), he's probably getting a majority," predicted Henry Jacek, a longtime political science expert and professor emeritus at McMaster University, who noted recent polls have the Tories sitting just outside of majority territory at 37 per cent support.

But if it's May and you're seeing people getting sick all around you, or maybe yourself ... then I think (Ford is) in a lot of trouble."

Pandemic politics aside, it's hard to ignore the other signs of an approaching provincial vote - even if the election writ does not officially drop until May 4.

In the last two weeks, the Tory government has axed unfair" tolls from highways, promised gas tax cuts (again) and frozen tuitions for students. The Opposition NDP - headed by Hamilton's Andrea Horwath - has recently trumpeted universal mental health care as a signature election promise and unveiled a targeted ad campaign.

There is local candidate drama, too, with MPP Paul Miller booted from the NDP over alleged membership in a virulently racist Facebook group. He denies the charge, but the race for Hamilton East-Stoney Creek is suddenly unpredictable.

Political and pandemic turmoil have also spurred the creation of new parties, including a New Blue Party formed by disgruntled former Tories that have registered candidates in all provincial ridings, including Hamilton. The right-wing party wants to axe the Doug Ford carbon tax" and stop woke activism."

While voting day probably seems far away to some residents, Hamiltonians have a lot of history to ponder after a tumultuous four-year term of provincial government.

The shocking cancellation - then resurrection! - of LRT. The tragic loss of life in long-term-care homes during the pandemic. An ongoing war of wills between Hamilton elected councillors and Municipal Affairs Minister Steve Clark over the city's plan to freeze the urban boundary.

Over the coming weeks, The Spec will delve into these and other elections issues. For now, here's a preview of a few major issues:

Pandemic fallout

Voters have a chance to reward or punish the Tory government for its response to the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic.

The Ford government faced criticism over everything from playground closures to the number of paid sick days to the timing of provincial lockdowns during various waves of COVID-19. But the 4,200-plus death toll in long-term-care homes - the ones Ford promised to protect with an iron ring" - looms large in the minds of many voters. (On the other hand, Ontario long-term-care homes still fared better than those in Quebec.)

The NDP has called for an end to privatized long-term care, while the Liberals unveiled an emergency plan" for the sector that focused on pandemic pay bumps to retain nurses and PSWs and beefed up vaccination.

Also looming is a sixth, variant-fuelled wave of COVID that comes as mask mandates and vaccine passports are axed. Popular with some pandemic-weary residents, the move has also been labelled throwing caution to the wind" by the province's own science advisory table director, Dr. Peter Juni.

Provincial health officials have so far insisted that rising COVID cases are expected and manageable. But Jacek said Ford might come to rue referring to the latest wave of COVID as a little spike" if it overloads hospitals, forces surgery cancellations or results in a higher number of otherwise preventable deaths.

LRT and transportation

It's been a bumpy ride for the government since Tory Transportation Minister Caroline Mulroney was effectively chased out of Hamilton by outraged protesters on Dec. 16, 2019 - the day she tried to publicly announce the cancellation of the city's long-planned light rail transit project.

That decision - memorably labelled a betrayal of Hamilton" by Mayor Fred Eisenberger - was followed by a hastily assembled task force study, an auditor general report and a newly funded, $3.4-billion project with capital costs now shared with the federal Liberals.

Going into this election, all the major political parties appear on board with LRT.

The Tory government's determination to build new Greenbelt-eating highways, on the other hand, has pitted enthusiastic suburban commuters against infuriated environmentalists. Opposition parties have pledged to cancel contentious projects like Highway 413.

There are no new highways planned in Hamilton. But voters are still awaiting environmental details on planned asphalt widenings for Highway 403, the QEW and a section of Highway 6 South near the airport.

The housing crisis and growing up or out in Hamilton

Skyrocketing housing prices and rental rates are problems throughout Ontario and most of urban Canada.

Every political party will offer a comprehensive housing plan. We'll take a more detailed look closer to election day.

But the housing crisis has also torqued an already acrimonious debate over how and where Hamilton grows as a city.

The province has basically ordered cities like Hamilton to expand their urban boundaries to make more room for single-family homes, a move supported by developers and business groups like the Hamilton Chamber of Commerce.

But a growing grassroots uprising helped convince city council to buck the provincial direction and plan to grow within its existing boundaries via more infill projects, multi-residential and condo projects - particularly along the LRT route.

The province could still overrule the city and allow tens of thousands of new homes on farmland in Elfrida, an area outside the urban boundary where a handful of large developers already own more than a thousand acres. That could spur an angry backlash among environmental-minded voters - or support from would-be homebuyers priced out of the market.

Matthew Van Dongen is a transportation and environment reporter at for The Spectator. mvandongen@thespec.com