NHL Monday best bets: Stars to cool red-hot Canucks

We ended last week on a high, winning both of our bets heading into the holiday weekend.

We'll look to pick up where we left off as we head down the homestretch of the regular season.

The Dallas Stars enter play on a 6-2-2 run, and it's probably fair to say that record doesn't even do them justice - they're playing remarkably well.

At five-on-five, the Stars control a whopping 56.04% of the expected goal share. That's the third-highest output in the league, behind only the Florida Panthers and Boston Bruins.

Their reward for that dominance at full strength is *checks notes* a negative goal differential. That's right - they're minus-2 at five-on-five over that span despite being plus-5 in terms of expected goals. A seven-goal swing would definitely help make the difference in a game or two.

Even though Dallas isn't a high-end finishing team, we should still expect its shooting percentage to rise a little bit, which will help convert some of those expected markers into actual tallies.

The Vancouver Canucks' record matches the Stars' over the last 10, but their five-on-five results are better. The process lags well behind, though. Vancouver controls less than 48% of the expected goals, slotting it just ahead of the Philadelphia Flyers and Seattle Kraken.

Dallas should be able to tilt the ice in its favor during this game. While Thatcher Demko is more than capable of stealing two points on any given night, the Stars can also rely on quality goaltending with the way Jake Oettinger and, surprisingly, Scott Wedgewood have played of late.

Look for Dallas to end Vancouver's five-game winning streak and put a severe dent in the latter's slim playoff hopes.

Bet: Stars (-115)

The Arizona Coyotes are a disaster. An absolute disaster. They're outplayed on a nightly basis, and their goaltending is cooling off a little, leading to some borderline disturbing results.

The Coyotes have dropped six games in a row, being outscored 33-7. That's a minus-26 differential, good for an average margin of defeat of more than four goals per game.

While they're not going to lose by four goals a game forever - you'd think, anyway - I'm not sure this is the spot they snap out of their funk. Not having Clayton Keller, Jakob Chychrun, or to a much lesser extent, Lawson Crouse against a team like the Carolina Hurricanes is nightmare fuel.

The Hurricanes spend the bulk of games on the front foot. They sit fourth in expected goal share and second in high-danger chance share over the last 10 games. They walk all over opponents on most nights.

Having dropped two in a row - and being in the midst of a heated battle with the New York Rangers for top spot in the Metro - I expect the Hurricanes to come out and take care of business in Arizona.

Bet: Hurricanes -1.5 (-140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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