NHL Wednesday best bets: Golden Knights to get crucial win at home
Tuesday was a very good night for us on the ice. We enjoyed a 3-0 sweep with our best bets while winning two of the three player props.
We'll look to keep the ball rolling Wednesday with a combination of sides and player props. Let's get to it.
Capitals (+110) @ Golden Knights (-130)You often hear the term "must-win game" thrown around, at times a little too loosely. Not Wednesday. This is the definition of a must-win game for the Vegas Golden Knights.
Prior to their last contest against the New Jersey Devils, the Golden Knights needed a 4-1-1 record to have a real shot at making the playoffs. They dropped that game in regulation. The margin for error is now slim to none; Vegas has to win. I expect the team to do just that against the Washington Capitals.
The Golden Knights are starting to get healthy, and their recent form reflects that. They own a 6-3-1 mark over the last 10 contests and have controlled 54.28% of the expected goals at five-on-five. That's good for seventh in the NHL during that period.
Washington hasn't fared nearly as well at five-on-five. The Capitals' expected goal share is below 50%, mostly due to issues defensively. They're 24th in expected goals against per 60 during the last 10 contests.
With Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty recently rejoining Vegas' lineup, the team has more firepower to take advantage of those defensive shortcomings.
The Golden Knights aren't the powerhouse they were supposed to be, but they're still a good team, they're at home, and they're desperate. I see value in this line.
Bet: Golden Knights (-130)
Leon Draisaitl over 3.5 shots (+115)Leon Draisaitl has been a shooting machine of late, especially on home soil. Draisaitl's piled up at least four shots in eight of his last 10 games in Edmonton, averaging 4.5 over that span.
It doesn't matter who the Oilers star is going up against, either. He's enjoyed success against teams like the Tampa Bay Lightning, St. Louis Blues, and Colorado Avalanche during this hot streak.
While Draisaitl hasn't hit in either matchup against the Dallas Stars this season, there's reason to believe things could be different this time around. For one, it's not a road game. Draisaitl's hit rate is 23% higher in Edmonton, so that should make a big difference.
The Stars, in their current form, are also conceding a lot to centers. They're in the bottom 10 in shots allowed per game to the position over the last month, and only three teams have given up more goals. A sniper like Draisaitl is more than capable of taking advantage of this matchup.
Seth Jones over 2.5 shots (-118)The Arizona Coyotes have been the best matchup for defensemen all season long. No team has given up as many shots to defenders. In fact, there's no squad even close.
Arizona has allowed 861 shots to opposing blue-liners. For perspective, the Columbus Blue Jackets (806) are the only other team that's given up more than 751. The Coyotes are 110 shots clear of the 30th-ranked side. It's craziness.
Seth Jones, like almost every notable defenseman, has greatly benefited from dates with the Coyotes this year. He's recorded 16 shots on goal and 24 attempts over three meetings against them while going over the number (2.5) each time.
With Arizona missing several key players and looking closer to an AHL team than an NHL club, I expect Jones' success to continue in this game.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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