Comprehensive betting guide to the 2022 NFL Draft
The NFL Draft is a betting vehicle unlike any other. With a week between games during the season, no league provides more time for bettors to decide who they'll put their money on. However, a week becomes months with the draft, meaning the early bird gets the worm - or in this case, the value - which explains why we've been trying for months to get to the bottom of who'll top the 2022 event.
Like any betting market, we've tried to create value by making bets at prices before they shorten. Our calculated risks come from logical breakdowns of the draft, even if the NFL decision-makers can at times make picks devoid of much common sense.
First overall pick odds (Jan. 4)No one knows who is going where. Even the Jaguars don't seem to know. Those claiming to have sources are likely being used by those sources to create misdirection that may benefit the team. We've long been at the forefront of the #NotHutch movement in this space, even when he was the favorite. Now, apparently, Aidan Hutchinson is not even the top edge rusher on the Jaguars' board.
Is there a bet left to make?
The word out of Jacksonville is that an offensive lineman is still in play, but the odds suggest that Ikem Ekwonu would be the tackle taken and not Evan Neal - as the former is up to +450 - if you're still hoping Doug Pederson will win the right to make the final call.
Player draft position over/unders (April 13)We're sitting pretty with our Hutchinson Over 1.5 ticket at +225 now that he's -350 for Jacksonville to pass him over.
| PLAYER | AS OF 4/16 | AS OF 4/27 |
|---|---|---|
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | U5.5 (+100) | U4.5 (-205) |
| Garrett Wilson | U10.5 (-115) | U9.5 (-130) |
| Jordan Davis | O13.5 (-160) | U14.5 (+125) |
There were reasons the value was sucked out of those bets: The recognition that a team will scoop Thibodeaux up if available at the fifth pick, the 10th pick will more likely be used on a wide receiver like Wilson, and the Ravens would be a viable landing spot for Davis at 14.
Is there a bet left to make?
Not on these players, but more players have been lined than there were two weeks ago. The lesson: If you show up on draft week intending to get value in your bets, you're too late.
For player over/under bets, the best option might be at the league's highest-profile position.
QB markets (April 25)This is where we're trying to have a little fun with uncertainty around these players, and the odds haven't changed much. Some are hinting that the Falcons like Malik Willis (+350) at the 8th pick, but those odds are a little short for me.
Is there a bet left to make?
Both quarterbacks are seeing their draft position crashing. Willis Under 13.5 (+100) is worth a play on the idea that someone - likely via trade - might grab the prospect with the most upside at the most important position. Willis (-190) is still the safer bet to be the first taken at his position.
First-round picks (April 18)Value doesn't exclusively come with a plus sign in front of the number. That was evident with Jameson Williams (-700) and Trevor Penning (-500) - our two picks to definitely go in Round 1. The two are now listed at -3500 and -1000, respectively.
Is there a bet left to make?
Both Arnold Ebiketie's and Christian Watson's prices have slightly improved to go in the first round. Watson is +115 to go in the first 32 picks, but he's even-money to go Under 39.5. I'd sacrifice 15% of my payout to have the comfort of seven extra picks.
Positional totals (April 20)Under 7.5 (+135) offensive linemen really got out of hand, as it's now -205. Meanwhile Under 1.5 (+200) safeties hasn't changed much and is an underdog still relying on players at more valuable positions to go late in the first round.
Is there a bet left to make?
Over 15.5 first-round defensive players is still widely available at -125. If you're worried about someone doing something crazy like drafting a kicker in the first round, making the same bet on Under 16.5 offensive players is the play.
Remaining betsHeavily-juiced bets are a much better idea the closer we get to the draft since there's obviously less time for things to drastically change. With fewer opportunities to make a deal and all duplicitous options exhausted, more reliable information may come out as clubs bring more individuals into the decision-making. Loose lips sink ships, but they also provide last-minute betting opportunities if you're willing to pay the juice.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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